If Bismarck had made it to France

Discussions about the history of the ship, technical details, etc.

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wadinga
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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by wadinga » Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:53 am

Hello Alberto,

Maybe, statistically speaking, Admiral Santarini can enlighten you on what a 100% success rate on three targets is likely to mean for the fourth one.

Bill's observations are spot-on, Santarini writes a volume of elaborate statistical overkill based on a miniscule amount of sampled data and then abandons statistical analysis for wholly subjective observations. Solely because PoW damaged Bismarck's fuel supply her shooting was "excellent" whereas the other two hits made were of trifling importance. All three could have been trifling. The randomness of where a hit may be and therefore its consequences, significant or otherwise, are not considered in his deeply flawed study. If Bismarck's hit on the compass platform had in fact killed everybody there, the ship might have continued to close to point blank range and been annihilated. As it was, by pure chance, Leach survived, ordered a turn and PoW survived to fight another and outlive her opponent. If PoW's Admiral's launch hit had hit the Admiral instead, the entire complexion would have been different yet again.

He also neglects to point out Bismarck's hits, however many were scored, were on two different targets, whereas PoW scored only three on only one.

The RAF did all that was required of them in disabling all three ships in Brest for many months and ensuring the available dockyard resources were withheld from Doenitz' U-Boat fleet. Just enough was done with raids in the latter part of 1941 to ensure they would never be a problem in the Atlantic again. If Bismarck had made it to France, the 9th July directive to concentrate on Germany, would have simply been put off for a month or so until the new target had been crippled as well, and confined to the St Nazaire dock, probably for the rest of 1941, just like the others were in Brest. It is clear the French port raids were considered "Milk Runs" in comparison with braving flak and nightfighters over the Ruhr.

Hang on in their Byron, your input is valued.

All the best

wadinga
"There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today!"

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Alberto Virtuani
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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Alberto Virtuani » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:30 pm

Hello everybody,
Byron Angel wrote: "Goodbye, Mr Virtuani. I have had my fill."
Goodbye forever (I hope you are at least able to keep your word...), Mr.Angel, enjoy your own vacuum !


Wadinga wrote: " Solely because PoW damaged Bismarck's fuel supply her shooting was "excellent" whereas the other two hits made were of trifling importance"
Bismarck hits on PoW were of much more "trifling importance" in terms of the ship efficiency. The fatal hit on Hood could have been trifling as well, but it was not.
Statistics may be a difficult science, but it shows clearly that PoW shooting was very good (not due to the "position" of her hits but due to the fact that 3 hits were scored out 55 shells in 8,5 minutes, as the comparison with Bismarck (5 hits (or 6 hits) out of 93 shells on two targets (but without having to find the range again, as per the Baron account) in 14 minutes), and mostly with Hood (0 hits out of ? shells in 7 minutes), demonstrates) and Adm.Santarini gives a clear explanation of the reasons why British could not admit it. viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8469&start=75#p82143
You cannot admit it as well, after 75+ years: your problem, as you cannot change the known figures (nor the reconstruction of the battle else than invoking "indeterminateness"). It's published and substantiated by a gunnery expert, not by RN "fans" inventing excuses to justify a Captain.



Bye, Alberto
"It takes three years to build a ship; it takes three centuries to build a tradition" (Adm.A.B.Cunningham)

"There's always a danger running in the enemy at close range" (Adm.W.F.Wake-Walker)

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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Bill Jurens » Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:54 am

For what it is worth, I also regret Mr. Angel's withdrawal and hope that he (and a variety of others who have dropped out of this forum recently) choose to return. Their contributions will be missed, at least by myself.

So far as the gunnery situation at Denmark Strait is concerned, although I greatly respect Adm. Santarini's expertise and methodology (in fact I am working on a paper with him now) I do not, for a variety of reasons, entirely embrace his overall evaluation of that engagement. That doesn't mean I think he's wrong, just that my idea of right is a little different than his. To me, it's an area where honest and intelligent men can still find room for respectful and responsible disagreement. It's a small sample size, making highly reliable predictions and conclusions somewhat problematical.

The same, I think, applies to the situation regarding the reconstruction of the Denmark Strait action track charts. The data, at least in my opinion, and at least the data I have seen, are not well enough formally defined, nor detailed enough, nor consistent enough to support other than a fairly approximate reconstruction. Exactly how one might define 'fairly approximate' in that context remains, at least in my mind, a somewhat debatable issue.

This situation results, in my opinion, in a situation where correspondents, if they wish to reach any firm conclusions at all, may find them somewhat divergent, especially regarding detail. Some strong arguments have been made with respect to one particular reconstruction, which some other readers have found either incorrect or unconvincing. I do not believe that this residual skepticism can be attributed, as some have suggested, to ignorance or inflexibility on the part of the dissenters insofar as they have -- at least in my estimation -- often been able to bring forth rather cogent arguments to support their positions.

It is unfortunate that this discussion seems to be closing off not so much due to the attainment of some sort of reasonable consensus, but because various members are finding it fairly pointless to continue.

Bill Jurens

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Alberto Virtuani
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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Alberto Virtuani » Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:07 pm

Bill Jurens wrote: "...although I greatly respect Adm. Santarini's expertise and methodology...I do not, for a variety of reasons, entirely embrace his overall evaluation of that engagement. "
Hi Mr.Jurens,
I myself don't agree with all Adm.Santarini overall evaluation of the engagement: he has used the British official reports, trusting them regarding the heavy cruisers distance (over 15 sm) and even the PoW retreat time (6:13). He did not reconstruct the battle himself, taking a totally wrong battelmap as starting point for his evaluation.

However, he has correctly evaluated the PoW performance and mostly he has understood that the British "reluctance" to recognize PoW performances was for the obvious reason that, doing so, the decision of Leach to retreat would have been much more debatable as well.




Regarding the reconstruction, I respect your opinion that the data are not enough defined/detailed/consistent, but I totally disagree: the incapacity of anybody to produce any decent alternative, shows clearly that Antonio Bonomi's reconstruction is "fairly correct" enough to make clear who acted heroically and who acted timidly.


Bye, Alberto
"It takes three years to build a ship; it takes three centuries to build a tradition" (Adm.A.B.Cunningham)

"There's always a danger running in the enemy at close range" (Adm.W.F.Wake-Walker)

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Antonio Bonomi
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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Antonio Bonomi » Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:42 pm

Hello everybody,

@ Alberto Virtuani,

you wrote :
Regarding the reconstruction, I respect your opinion that the data are not enough defined/detailed/consistent, but I totally disagree: the incapacity of anybody to produce any decent alternative, shows clearly that Antonio Bonomi's reconstruction is "fairly correct" enough to make clear who acted heroically and who acted timidly.
Please allow me to correct you, ... my work is not "fairly correct", ... but taking in account that either here in as well as outside of this forum nobody has been able since 2005 to correct anything of what I have done about this battle, ... and updated after, ... it should be considered for what it is, ... I mean it is the most correct re-construction so far existing of the Denmark Strait battle.

In fact has been largely copied on several books after I have released it, and it is basically used being the official version of the battle both on this website as well as on the Hood one.

The few trails I have seen to try to read the battle photos or to try to modify and establish some ship course in a different way, ... has resulted in a miserable failure by the ones that have tried to propose the alternative.

Obviously many still do not like to see it in graphic format or to read it in writings, ... but we do know the reasons for this to be.

Bye Antonio
In order to honor a soldier, we have to tell the truth about what happened over there. The whole, hard, cold truth. And until we do that, we dishonor her and every soldier who died, who gave their life for their country. ( Courage Under Fire )

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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by paul.mercer » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:11 pm

Gentlemen,
While not wanting to take sides in this debate, I do find it very sad that a long standing and valued member has felt it necessary to resign from this Forum just because of disagreements on certain topics.
Surely this is what this Forum is all about, discussing and listening to each others points of view on various subjects and perhaps learning from them (as I have on many occasions)even if we do not always agree with what is being said?
In order to stop any further resignations,perhaps Bill, as the Moderator could step in future threaten to shut down any thread that gets too heated?
I do hope Byron will reconsider his decision,return and continue to give his input on this Forum.
Paul

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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by northcape » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:22 pm

Antonio Bonomi wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:42 pm


I mean it is the most correct re-construction so far existing of the Denmark Strait battle.
No it is not, or more correctly stated, we can not know if it is correct. It is the most elaborate one, but there is no way to measure or qualify its "correctness".

Why is there no way to do so?

Because correctness (or accuracy) means you know the true story, and can measure your model/prediction/theory against it. In case of the DS, you don't know the true ship movements to the very fine scale which your reconstruction proposes. Just because you propose an elaborate model, does not mean that you propose the truth.

It is very simple, and it is hard to believe that some people don't get this. In more plain language, just because you put a lot of ingredients in a pot, it does not mean that the dish will be more tasty than plain, but high-quality bread and butter.

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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Antonio Bonomi » Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:30 pm

Hello everybody,

@ Northcape,

it is for sure more accurate and deeply researched than anything else you proposed in this forum so far.

Surely it is not the bunch of lies that somebody put together and published for many years pretending that was the truth, ... for the well known reasons we have finally discovered and made available to everybody.

If you can do better or prove what I did being incorrect, ... be my guest and go ahead, ... show us your competences.


Bye Antonio
In order to honor a soldier, we have to tell the truth about what happened over there. The whole, hard, cold truth. And until we do that, we dishonor her and every soldier who died, who gave their life for their country. ( Courage Under Fire )

northcape
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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by northcape » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:49 pm

Antonio Bonomi wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:30 pm


If you can do better or prove what I did being incorrect, ... be my guest and go ahead, ... show us your competences.

None of the two options above (do better or prove incorrectness) is possible. I'm happy to repeat:

Because correctness (or accuracy) means you know the true story, and can measure your model/prediction/theory against it. In case of the DS, you don't know the true ship movements to the very fine scale which your reconstruction proposes. Just because you propose an elaborate model (based on scarce and insufficient data), does not mean that you propose the truth.

I, for myself, don't propose anything. I'm just trying to sort out opinions and facts.

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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Antonio Bonomi » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:52 am

Hello everybody,

@ Northcape,

and that is were your limit is of being here in writing what you are writing above.

You, ... just like many others here in, ... do not like nor you want to do anything to improve or research deeply and better what was released at first about this battle.

You are ok with the surely incorrect version of the facts that was proposed at the time and printed after, ... and are here in writing those statements just to challenge anything and everything that can change the state of that version of the facts, ... despite the evidence that it is absolutely incorrect, ...intentionally released wrong on purpose for the well known reason.

For you, ... like others, ... everything is better than the truth, ... and it does not matter which percentage of the truth about this battle is going to be released, ... or published after the careful researches on the official documents still available.

You just do not like it to be, ... this is what I am reading here from you, ... and in other threads written by other persons doing basically the same thing since years on every occasion in any possible way, ... for their own written admission.

In fact it has been useless to ask your agreement about a simple geometry figure and some elementary distances confirmation that could have only be read on the proposed way.
You do not like to help any historical reconstruction, ... in the opposite you want to try to refute and reject being real anybody trying to do it. This is what you and others try to do here in since years.

No more comments about this attitude is needed, ... everybody can do what he likes, ... and the forum readers are surely able to realize it.

If this history forum allows this attitude is not my problem, ... we do have a moderator now and it is his duty to take care about such attitudes by the forum members.

Bye Antonio
In order to honor a soldier, we have to tell the truth about what happened over there. The whole, hard, cold truth. And until we do that, we dishonor her and every soldier who died, who gave their life for their country. ( Courage Under Fire )

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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Bill Jurens » Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:00 pm

As moderator, I would request that Mr. Bonomi re-read, re-consider, and delete his immediately previous memo. The content, simply rephrased, amounts to saying "I disagree with you."

Bill Jurens

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Re: If Bismarck had made it to France

Post by Bill Jurens » Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:44 pm

I have written Mr. Rico in order to clarify the moderator's abilities to control and edit postings to this forum, and made some suggestions which I think might help to improve the situation somewhat. Mr. Rico may choose to reply to this forum directly, or -- should our correspondence remain 'back-channel' -- I will report at least the gist of his reply if and as appropriate.

In any case, we are, I believe, past the point where simple admonitions are sufficient to control the situation.

Bill Jurens

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