The Climate Change agenda

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RF
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby RF » Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:26 pm

alecsandros wrote:
However, if I remember correctly, the warming of the weather is following the rate of industrialisation... The rise in the past 150 years has been much stronger than in the previous 200 years. With spikes in in global temperatures rise somewhat correlated to spikes in industrial output.


This is the view advanced by the proponants of anthropogenic global warming. However there are weaknesses to it. For example in the early 1970's there was a dip in temperatures which led to a belief in global cooling and a possible onset of the next Ice Age. There is also now a further backtracking to say that the period 2009 to 2014 maybe a period of cooling due to the lower level of sunspot activity, despite an increase in industrial activity and CO2 oiutputs in developing countries, particulary India and China.
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby alecsandros » Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:09 pm

Well, it's certainlny very hard to separate the natural factors from the human ones, as we can only analyze the effects.

About the 2009-2014 "cooldown": In my country, 2010 is announced as "the hottest year in recorded history". Today, 15th of June, the temperature is 38*C in the shade. 2 years ago the annual maximum was 43*. Probably we will beat that record this year...

Then, it's not clear to me HOW the industrial output influences daily, weekly, annualy temperatures. My guess is that the Earth, as a thermodynamic system, is constantly changing heat between its various layers. The layers are spread both verticaly (litosphere, troposphere, stratosphere, etc) and horizontaly (continent-sized land masses).
Through natural phenomenons, such as wind, cloud distribution, rain, snow, sea currents, heat is exchanged between the layers.
The heat cannot "get out" of the overall system, as the upper atmospheric layers have a gradualy decreasing "heat", which comes near zero at the "border" with space.

If I see things correctly, than the warming comes both from industrial activities AND from daily use of appliances, cars, computers, etc.
For the global warming, I don't think the increase in industrial output will be the main problem, as the hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indians owners of cars and computers will be...

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RF
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby RF » Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:31 pm

Greenhouse gases from cars and household appliances are rather insignificant compared with natural production, from volcanic activity. Evidence for warming from the former isn't really that great if you are looking at actual scientific evidence, as opposed to conjecture and spin.

The whole process of solar insolation and heat storage and transfer is very complex and there are so many different factors involved that you cannot represent it with simplified models. Heat varaiation and microclimatic change must occur by definition, each season, each year will have its high and low points in temperature, so selective statistics can be presented to ''prove'' any angle or assertion you choose.

The last time we had the football world cup, four years ago, we had an intense heatwave in the UK. Since then we have had a succession of very poor summers plus winters of an increasing severity. I suspect that heatwave represented three UK summers at once, the next three summers we paid for it with indifferent weather, to catch up.

Really we don't know enough about our weather systems to be sure what is really happening, over periods of thousands of years.
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Karl Heidenreich
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby Karl Heidenreich » Wed Jun 16, 2010 1:07 am

Alecsandros,

There is misinterpretation here: the world climate IS changing, that's a fact.

Now:

1. If the climate is changing which are the causes? Some are those a natural "periodical" phenomena: the Earth has been in arid ages, cold ages, tropical ages, etc. That has happen because of volcanoes erupting, celestial phenomenas, asteroids hitting the Earth, the relative position of Earth and Sun, etc.

2. Nowadays there are factors, human produced, that can be tracked as reasons for "helping" the climate change.

So:

It is a responsible duty of Human Kind to do whatever is in it's hands to reduce those acelerating elements trackable to Human responsibility.

But from that, to go ape with this Climate Agenda is another thing. The way this agenda is being manipulated by the leftist establishment and the US communist president (not the first one however) only demostrates that the Climate Change is being used as an "excuse" to attack capitalism and mega corporations from those guys that in th e 80ies were flying the Soviet flag as now they fly the Greenpeace one. It's the same purpose but with a different mask.

And that makes things difficult because, even if you want to help to mitigate or reduce the effects of "human caused climate change" you must be careful not to be falling into the plans of these bunch of populist conspirators.

Of course, there is always a shield from these guys against such a statement: paranoia! As that they yell to Reagan or Thatcher or Kohl. Look History!
An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby alecsandros » Wed Jun 16, 2010 5:49 am

Karl Heidenreich wrote:
But from that, to go ape with this Climate Agenda is another thing. The way this agenda is being manipulated by the leftist establishment and the US communist president (not the first one however) only demostrates that the Climate Change is being used as an "excuse" to attack capitalism and mega corporations from those guys that in th e 80ies were flying the Soviet flag as now they fly the Greenpeace one. It's the same purpose but with a different mask.

Around here there is no one going "ape" about climate change. On the contrary, in Romania there are few voices supporting radical modifications in industry/lifestyle.
My impression is that we're to focused on rebuilding our industrial sector to be concerned with polution and global warming...

Indeed, it's very hard to know how much of the climate change is due to human action. However, there are several events which are very clear, and which influence the world heavily:
- deforestation in South America (mainly Brazil)
- waste spillage in the rivers
- several industrial disasters (Chernobyl, Bhopal, etc)
- oil disasters (Exxon Valdez, BP's oil rig, etc)

And others...

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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby lwd » Wed Jun 16, 2010 6:14 pm

Another thing to consider is weather is clearly a chaotic phenmina and by extension so is climate. The implication of this is that it is very difficult to predict the impact of changes in behaviour on the system. In particular there are a huge number of both positive and negative feedback mechanisms many interconnected. That said there are also good arguments for impementing "reasonable" modifications that limit things like CO2 production.

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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby Bgile » Wed Jun 16, 2010 6:49 pm

We all know that people suffer long and short term health problems when there is air pollution. We don't need climate change to justify reducing air pollution.

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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby lwd » Wed Jun 16, 2010 6:57 pm

Indeed the St. Helana experiance highlited that very well.

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RF
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby RF » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:03 am

Karl Heidenreich wrote:
2. Nowadays there are factors, human produced, that can be tracked as reasons for "helping" the climate change.

So:

It is a responsible duty of Human Kind to do whatever is in it's hands to reduce those acelerating elements trackable to Human responsibility.



Where Karl is the precise proof for these factors?
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RF
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby RF » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:08 am

Karl Heidenreich wrote:,

2. Nowadays there are factors, human produced, that can be tracked as reasons for "helping" the climate change.

So:

It is a responsible duty of Human Kind to do whatever is in it's hands to reduce those acelerating elements trackable to Human responsibility.



Where Karl is the precise scientific proof of these human factors?
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RF
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby RF » Wed Dec 22, 2010 12:29 pm

Well we have now had two-thirds of December, and following on from the British Met Office saying last summer that we would be having a mild winter because of global warming, what we have had so far is the coldest November since 1981 and the coldest December (before we have even finished the month) since that of 1910.

Not a good advertisement for global warming is it?

Mind you we have a very long way to go before we equal some of Britain's coldest ever winters. I can remember 1963-64 and 1962-63 as a kid and that was bad, with lots of snow. And my parents told me about 1947.....

Actually the 1947 situation is often misunderstood in a wider climatic context. November and December 1946 were unusually mild, it was only on 22 January 1947 that the cold snap came, and lasted until 17 March. In those eight weeks the daytime temperature remined below freezing, and it was regardest as the snowiest winter ever (at the time). The problem was that one blizzard followed another without the previous snow thawing out. The phenomena of snow piling on top of more snow was something that couldn't be coped with and the transport and distribution infrastructure gradually ground to a halt. This was exacerbated by a failure to stockpile any significant supplies of coal. And on 17 March a sudden and rapid thaw came - causing severe flooding, as at that time there wasn't the degree of flood and drainage control we have today. And the summer of 1947? That was a scorcher.... so the bad winter was counterbalanced by a good summer.

The coldest British winter on record was that of 1739-1740, very closely followed by that of 1714-1715. At the start of 1740 the River Thames in London was frozen solid for two months (in 1714-1715 three months) and nightime temperatures in Greenwich were frequently recorded as low as -24 degrees centigrade. Public fairs and huge bonfires were held on the Thames (the heat from the fires of course went upward and not into the frozen ground) and the populace took the cold in their stride. As records only began at the start of the eighteenth century it is probable that some of the winters going back a further 170 years were even colder. This period is often described as a ''mini Ice Age'' going back into Tudor times. It has been suggested that changes in solar insolation and sunspot cycles caused global cooling in that period, and it does seem more probable that that is what is influencing our climate currently - with a relatively warm spell.

Currently we have a lack of sunspot activity and this is now being blamed for the current severe winter. Maybe we won't need the Stern Report after all.
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RF
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby RF » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:44 am

It was reported in the Wolverhampton Express and Star last evening that a body called the World Meteorological Organisation has declared 2010 as ''the warmest year since global temparature records began in 1850.'' It also claimed that ''there was the lowest extent of sea-ice cover in the Arctic since satellite records began.''

Living in the northern hemisphere, not too far from the Arctic, and having just shivered through the coldest December for 100 years, I am wondering what planet this august body is living on.
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Dave Saxton
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby Dave Saxton » Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:31 pm

Heres an interesting link on this specific:

http://www.theclimategatebook.com/why-2 ... year-ever/
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

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RF
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby RF » Wed Feb 16, 2011 6:31 pm

An interesting article, thanks for the post Dave.

Whilst looking at this I thought of HRH Prince Charles, the heir to the English throne, who is supposed to be non-political. He recently gave a speech to the European Parliament in the company of the ''President of Europe'' Hermann von Rompoy (who I would hasten to say is actually Belgian not German) lambasting the so-called ''climate change sceptics'' and accusing them of playing ''Russian Roulette'' with the futures of their children and grandchildren. As usual no evidence so support this proposition was produced.
What I found amusing was his question about whether ''climate change sceptics'' would be held accountable for their views. Prize cheek I would say, coming from a person who is there by accident of birth and isn't answerable to any electorate!!

Commenting on the speech, UKIP leader Nigel Farage (three times elected as a member of the European Parliament) said that one of the biggest beneficiaries of windfarms in the UK, particulary offshore windfarms, is the Crown Estate and the Duchy of Cornwall, in terms of subsidy and royalties received. In other words HRH Prince Charles himself!! No accountability there of course!
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Re: The Climate Change agenda

Postby Dave Saxton » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:05 am

Wrong across this blog and thought I would share it.

http://climateaudit.org/
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.


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