Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby Bgile » Sun Oct 19, 2008 3:45 pm

Remember the US command now knows that the radar works. Any attack will be reported about 20 min before it gets there.

Very low level attacks against a prepared defense are very dangerous to the attackers and will be progressively more expensive the more they make.

How many submarines sortied at the end of Dec 7th? The USN knows the general direction of the Japanese fleet, and they are looking for it. Not all the long range patrol planes were destroyed, and the IJN can't just hang around north of PH indefinitely.

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby lwd » Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:36 pm

minoru genda wrote:... lets say they hang around for another day as "dunmunro" wrote and attack early on December 8. There would be no surprise this time but the US army and navy had only a handful of planes left.

After the attack the USAAF had about 60 fighters operational and about 50 more that could be repaired. Some of these would be ready on the 8th. Considering what the few combat ready fighters did on the 7th this is at least enough to cause considerable consternation for the attacking planes.
The Enterprise (with some lost and damaged planes) was in Pearl area on December 8 too and maybe could be discovered and attacked by the japanese.

I don't think Enterpirse got into port until the evening of the 8th. Unlikely she would be spotted by the Japanese. However her planes might get into the battle.
"RNfanDan" says that additional damage in Pearl wouldn't affect Coral Sea and Midway operations at all but what if the usn lost the Enterprise? :?:

What if the IJN lost half their bombers? Remember they had by some accounts over 100 planes damaged mostly from the second wave. Attacking vs alerted defences especially if the AAF breaks up the attacks by intercepting early isn't going to be a good thing for them.

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby minoru genda » Sun Oct 19, 2008 9:38 pm

lwd wrote:After the attack the USAAF had about 60 fighters operational and about 50 more that could be repaired. Some of these would be ready on the 8th. Considering what the few combat ready fighters did on the 7th this is at least enough to cause considerable consternation for the attacking planes.

Before the attack there were about 390 planes of all kinds in Pearl. 188 aircraft were destroyed and 155 damaged so we have 47 planes ready plus the 50 that you said could be repaired in less that 24 hours, but remember not all of these planes were fighters, there were patrol planes, bombers, etc.

lwd wrote:I don't think Enterpirse got into port until the evening of the 8th. Unlikely she would be spotted by the Japanese. However her planes might get into the battle.

Yes I think Enterprise entered Pearl in the evenign of the 8th, but she was very only a few miles west of Oahu. I think she could be discovered by japanese patrol planes. Look this map

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... rChart.jpg

I found this about Enterprise from wikipedia:

Enterprise was returning to Oahu on the morning of 7 December 1941, from a mission to deliver Marine planes and pilots of squadron VMF-211 to Wake Island. Eighteen SBD Dauntless scout bombers of Enterprise squadrons VS-6 and VB-6 arrived over Pearl Harbor during the attack and, though surprised, immediately went into action in defense of the naval base. Scouting Six lost six planes during the attack, while Bombing Six lost one. Several of these planes were shot down by the Japanese; however, at least one plane was lost to heavy antiaircraft fire, and many more were damaged. At one point a radio report was heard: "Do not attack me, this is six baker three an American plane" and later the same pilot (Ensign Manuel Gonzales of VB-6) was heard ordering his radioman/gunner to prepare for a water landing. Lt. C. E. Dickinson and his crewmate William C. Miller of Scouting Six accounted for one Japanese plane before being forced to bail out after their plane caught fire. Dickinson later made his way to Ford Island to man another plane and participated in the search for the Japanese fleet. He was recommended for a commendation for "displaying a superb courage, stamina, devotion to duty, unexcelled logic and coolness in action". Enterprise also launched six Grumman F4F Wildcats of VF-6 in the wake of the attack; all except two were shot down by shell-shocked anti-aircraft gunners as they attempted to land on Ford Island that night. The carrier, meanwhile, assembled her remaining aircraft in a fruitless search for the Japanese striking force; the search was to the south and west of Oahu, while the Japanese retired to the northwest. Enterprise put into Pearl Harbor for fuel and supplies on the night of 8 December, and sailed early the next morning to patrol against possible additional attacks in the Hawaiian Islands.


lwd wrote:What if the IJN lost half their bombers? Remember they had by some accounts over 100 planes damaged mostly from the second wave. Attacking vs alerted defences especially if the AAF breaks up the attacks by intercepting early isn't going to be a good thing for them.

It could be possible, but also remember that some of the damaged japanese planes during the first two waves would be ready for the 8th too.
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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby RF » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:12 am

The above two posts make sense, especially if the Japanese force was eight carriers instead of six as I proposed.
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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby lwd » Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:47 pm

minoru genda wrote: ...Before the attack there were about 390 planes of all kinds in Pearl. 188 aircraft were destroyed and 155 damaged so we have 47 planes ready plus the 50 that you said could be repaired in less that 24 hours, but remember not all of these planes were fighters, there were patrol planes, bombers, etc.

http://www.ww2pacific.com/aaf41.html
Gives a somewhat differet number. The chart will probably get it's format messed up but here it is (these are USAAF planes only):
On the 7th of December 1941, there were 223 army aircraft based in Hawaii.
Airplane Total Destroyed Damaged Combat Ready
B-17 D 12 4 4 4
B-18 A 33 12 10 11
A-20 A 12 2 5 5
P-40 C 12 5 5 2
P-40 B 87 37 25 25
P-36 A 39 4 19 16
P-26 14 0 0 14
Total 223 64 82 77

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby lwd » Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:48 pm

RF wrote:The above two posts make sense, especially if the Japanese force was eight carriers instead of six as I proposed.

I think the other two were left out becasue they weren't fast enough. Ther emay also have been range problems.

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby minoru genda » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:26 pm

Good link lwd with very accurate numbers.
If I were Nagumo and had to send the third wave on the 8th with let's say 175 aircraft I would send 50 zeros 30 minutes in advance so they can keep the inferior US fighters busy and let the rest 125 bombers can attack pearl.
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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby Legend » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:51 pm

If Nagumo really wanted to be at war with the US he would have sent that third wave. Wasn't he the one who said "I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant" or something along those lines? Silly Japs, the second lesson you learn at school is never mess with someone who has a reputation for being the big kid on the block... :cool:
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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby Tiornu » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:56 pm

No, he's not the one who said that. Yamamoto is the one who allegedly said it, but folks have been trying unsuccessfully for years to find a source for the quote (other than the script of the movie Tora! Tora! Tora!).

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby Karl Heidenreich » Wed Oct 22, 2008 3:12 am

Everyone is assuming that the US forces will be fresh and cool after being hardly kicked. As in other discussions everybody forgot how all those people, military included were. The moral ascendency over the battlefield was Japanese. The US might had airplanes but hardly clean airstrips; maybe had pilots, but no proper coordination because everybody was looking for indians under the bed. It`s like saying that Custer could have launched a counter attack if Crazy Horse broke it`s attack`s at Little Big Horn.
That day wasn`t a US day, it was Japanese (as May 24th, 1941 was German). At June 4-5, 1941, then, it was showtime for the US (as May 27th was British).
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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby Bgile » Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:11 am

minoru genda wrote:Good link lwd with very accurate numbers.
If I were Nagumo and had to send the third wave on the 8th with let's say 175 aircraft I would send 50 zeros 30 minutes in advance so they can keep the inferior US fighters busy and let the rest 125 bombers can attack pearl.


Were some of these inferior fighters possibly the very same type that the AVG had previously been using to shoot down lots of Japanese aircraft in China?

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby RF » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:31 am

lwd wrote:
RF wrote:The above two posts make sense, especially if the Japanese force was eight carriers instead of six as I proposed.

I think the other two were left out becasue they weren't fast enough. Ther emay also have been range problems.


Given the stealth approach to north-west Hawaii over time and the relatively close proximity to the attack area would this have been a problem? In any event the presence of eight carriers would provide a substantial force for any counter-attack - if that were possible.
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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby RF » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:35 am

Legend wrote:If Nagumo really wanted to be at war with the US he would have sent that third wave. Wasn't he the one who said "I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant" or something along those lines? Silly Japs, the second lesson you learn at school is never mess with someone who has a reputation for being the big kid on the block... :cool:


This is the key point is it not - it reminds me of the quote from Oliver Cromwell: ''strike while the iron is hot and make it hot by striking.'' Especially as the US carriers were all missed it would have been more effective to destroy the base facilities at Pearl rather than just knockout the battleships.
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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby lwd » Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:28 pm

minoru genda wrote:Good link lwd with very accurate numbers.
If I were Nagumo and had to send the third wave on the 8th with let's say 175 aircraft I would send 50 zeros 30 minutes in advance so they can keep the inferior US fighters busy and let the rest 125 bombers can attack pearl.

I believe Japanese doctrine was close escort and supress the airfields. So for doctrinal reasons the above is pretty much out. What's likely to happen though is that the US intercept will not be very well coordinated. This means the P-40s are likely to intercept first. On the otherhand the Japanese fighters tended to get over involved in going after opposing fighters so it's likely that the zeros end up taking a few losses as well as the bombers to the p-40s and pretty much scrubing them from the sky. In the mean time the older fighters and perhaps the navy ones (perhaps including SBDs)as they probably aren't tied in very well to the Army air defence center end up intercepting the bombers. They'll inflict some additional losses but the biggest impact may be in messing up the coordination of the attack. Note that Japanese casulties in the first raid showed a disporportunate loss of leaders. Then the attacks come in vs a fully maned, prepped, and experianced airdefence.

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Re: Pearl Harbor: Possible third wave

Postby lwd » Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:55 pm

RF wrote: Given the stealth approach to north-west Hawaii over time and the relatively close proximity to the attack area would this have been a problem? In any event the presence of eight carriers would provide a substantial force for any counter-attack - if that were possible.

Well there's two considerations
1) range. IF they can't make it from the refueling point back to another safe refueling point that's a major problem.
2) speed. The run in to PH was at high speed and operations are at high speed. If the carriiers can't keep up then the force ends up split u p.

I wasn't sure what carriers you were talking about so I looked around and found three that might fit the bill.

Hosho 26 AC 25 knots
Zuiho 30 AC 28 knots
Ryujo 38 AC 29 knots

Note all are small and Hosho is definitly slow. All 3 were involved in operations vs the Philipines and may have been judged to be of much more use there in any case.


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