Japanese Victory at Midway

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RF
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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby RF » Fri Jan 16, 2009 2:38 pm

Amarel,

Given the American reaction to the attack on Pearl Harbor I don't think a negotiated peace with Japan was on the cards. Remember FDR's speech to Congress:

''No matter what the cost, no matter how long it takes, we will win through to absolute victory, so help us God.''

My point was that if the Japanese had reversed the carrier losses at Midway I still see the Pacific War ending in the same result, possibly even on the same day as the actual surrender in Tokyo Bay. The Japanese did not have the resources to exploit and follow up properly on such a victory.
''Give me a Ping and one Ping only'' - Sean Connery.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby Bgile » Fri Jan 16, 2009 4:12 pm

Amare1 wrote:Actually, if you have a look at what the 1st post on this topic says, the Japs have already won at Miedway. The question is what will happen next - invasion of Hawaii, peace or whatever else.


OK, well then my answer is they would eventually try to invade Hawaii. I also gave other effects in one of my original posts in the thread.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby lwd » Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:24 am

After reading Shattered Sword I think the invasion of Hawaii ranked right along with the invasion of Australia. A planning exercise that no Japanese admiral in his right mind wanted to contemplate. Sort of like Sea Lion. Go throught the steps and if there is a lot of pressure conclude you can't do it because you can't get enough support from the other service(s).

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby Bgile » Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:40 am

Just the oil problem would be huge, having to get it all the way from Japan. I'm reading "Black Shoe Carrier Admiral", and coming to realize how quickly a TF used up it's fuel trying to conduct frequent air ops, what with the TF attempting maintain some location or move somewhere and yet having to turn into the wind every time they launched or recovered aircraft. Destroyers especially used up their fuel at a frightening rate if they had to go 25 kts.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby Seekanone » Mon Apr 04, 2011 5:10 pm

In no way shape or form could Japan have invaded the Hawaiian Islands. Shipping to send up to five or more divisions just was not available while the involvement was great in SE Asia. Victory at Midway was problematic in that the US had sufficient land forces to smash any attempted landing attempt even if the US Navy was skulking back to Pearl Harbor.

If Japan had sunk three US carriers, the likelihood of no Japanese CVs being even badly damaged was slim and none. Japan would have lost at least two and this would have left the Kido Butai in wrecked shape. All the USN had to do was wait for the Essex class in the next six months and then for Japan, that would have been all she wrote. There was no way Japan could win the Pacific War no matter what the outcome of Midway. :negative:

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby alecsandros » Tue Jan 08, 2013 6:40 pm

Seekanone wrote:
If Japan had sunk three US carriers, the likelihood of no Japanese CVs being even badly damaged was slim and none. Japan would have lost at least two and this would have left the Kido Butai in wrecked shape. All the USN had to do was wait for the Essex class in the next six months and then for Japan, that would have been all she wrote. There was no way Japan could win the Pacific War no matter what the outcome of Midway. :negative:

Fascinating threadd.

My opinion is that the 4 IJN carriers could have obtained a victory against the USN, probably losing 1 carrier in the process.
HOwever, the loss of all 3 USN carriers in the Pacific would be a devastating blow.
Moreover, there were 4 more (small) IJN carriers converging on the area with about 120 warplanes on board.

Coupled with the probable 200 still operational on the 3 remaining fleet carriers, the fleet would have massive air power to do whatever it wanted in the area.

Thus, submarine operations by the USN would be extremely difficult, and Midway's land defenses would be crushed in 1-2 days.

Then and only then, would the invasion force be deployed, and Midway secured as a Japanese base.

===

What could follow could be a disaster for the USN.
ZUikaku and Shokaku would be operational by July 1942. Along with the remainig 3 fleet carriers, they would form the backbone of an attack force with ~320 warplanes available, which could be on the move towards Oahu by Aug 1942.

At this time, the USN could rush in all CVs available (Wasp, Saratoga, and Ranger), which could field a maximum of ~260 warplanes.

Needless to say, the IJN was far superior in all other surface forces (battleships, cruisers, destroyers).

===

A massive force, comprising most of the Japanese fleet, could be sent to cripple the defenders, while a second, landing force, would follow behind, moving slower.

===

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby alecsandros » Tue Jan 08, 2013 7:16 pm

The main force, moving at 22kts, would field
CVs: Akaga, Kagi, Soryu, Zuikaku, Shokaku, Ryujo, Zuiho, Junyo , Hiyo [total 500 warplanes]
Yamato, Musashi, Mutsu, Nagato, all 4 Kongos [fast battleships, with speed of 27kts or more]
15 CAs and CLs of the most modern types
40 DDs
50 first-class Submarines on various positions around Oahu.
10 support ships

Second force, moving at 18kts:

CVs: Unyo, Shoho (50 warplanes)
CVLs: , Kamikawa Maru, Chitose, Chiyoda, Nisshin (80 seaplanes)
BBs: Hyuga, Ise, Fuso, Yamashiro
6 CAs and CLs
20 DDs
5 support ships
====
Japanese ground forces could be mobilised in the Gilbert islands, from where they could be loaded on board ships and submarines and transported to Hawaii.
====

An attack on the western shores of Hawaii, coming as early as mid-Aug 1942, would be debilitating for the US forces.

At the best possible case, using all available units, they could field:

3 CVs with a max of 260 warplanes capacity.

5 modern BBs (North Carolina, Washington, South Dakota, Indiana, Massachussets)
9 older BBs (Maryland, Colorado, Tennessee, New Mexico, Mississippi, Idaho, Pennsylvania, New York, Texas), speed 22kts or less.

30 cruisers
~ 150 destroyers
~ 70 submarines [8 T class, 9 Sargo class, 6 Salmon class, 6 Porpoise class, 2 Cachalot class, 2 Narwhal class, 35 S class and Barracuda class]

hundreds of smaller craft

====

My guess is that the USN would try to fight similarly to Midway, thus keeping the battlefleet close to Oahu, and using the carrier planes in conjunction with land based ones.

However, the number of Japanese planes in the air would be staggering, and after several waves of assault, the US plane forces would be severely crippled.

An all out naval battle would clearly advantage the Japanese. [but what would be intersting would be the damage done by the US submarines... ]

Night bombardments by IJN battleships on Oahu, coupled with bombings of the airstrips, would take out a large number of US planes.

Reinforcements (especialy spare planes) can't be ferried to Oahu, as the 10 IJN carriers mantain a blockade over the island, and anyway, the USN doesn't have any carriers left to do ferry mission.

Worst still, Japanese land - based bombers could operate from the Midway airstrips, covering as far as French Frigate Shoals (700km from Midway).

====

Thus, I would give a great chance of success to the Japanese, at least in severely crippling the US fleet and air force.
IF a land assault would be attempted, it could go both ways.

BUT, with teh USN and USAAF clearly beaten, I doubt there would be much hope left in retaking the Pacific, for many years to come.

Australia and the entire SE Asia not under Japanese control would soon crumble.

No more operation Torch - no more Rommell out of Africa, and it's probable that the British would lose North Africa by mid-1943.

No more US aid to the Russians, via the heavily escorted Arctic convoys, and ... no more Stalingrad and Kursk.

Etc...

===

All in all, I think if the Japanese high command would try to capitalise on the gains of Midway, they could obtain a staggering victory, as their air - core superiority could ensure rapid victories after that.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby jonsidneyb » Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:16 am

alecsandros wrote:The main force, moving at 22kts, would field
CVs: Akaga, Kagi, Soryu, Zuikaku, Shokaku, Ryujo, Zuiho, Junyo , Hiyo [total 500 warplanes]
Yamato, Musashi, Mutsu, Nagato, all 4 Kongos [fast battleships, with speed of 27kts or more]
15 CAs and CLs of the most modern types
40 DDs
50 first-class Submarines on various positions around Oahu.
10 support ships

Second force, moving at 18kts:

CVs: Unyo, Shoho (50 warplanes)
CVLs: , Kamikawa Maru, Chitose, Chiyoda, Nisshin (80 seaplanes)
BBs: Hyuga, Ise, Fuso, Yamashiro
6 CAs and CLs
20 DDs
5 support ships
====
Japanese ground forces could be mobilised in the Gilbert islands, from where they could be loaded on board ships and submarines and transported to Hawaii.
====

An attack on the western shores of Hawaii, coming as early as mid-Aug 1942, would be debilitating for the US forces.

At the best possible case, using all available units, they could field:

3 CVs with a max of 260 warplanes capacity.

5 modern BBs (North Carolina, Washington, South Dakota, Indiana, Massachussets)
9 older BBs (Maryland, Colorado, Tennessee, New Mexico, Mississippi, Idaho, Pennsylvania, New York, Texas), speed 22kts or less.

30 cruisers
~ 150 destroyers
~ 70 submarines [8 T class, 9 Sargo class, 6 Salmon class, 6 Porpoise class, 2 Cachalot class, 2 Narwhal class, 35 S class and Barracuda class]

hundreds of smaller craft

====

My guess is that the USN would try to fight similarly to Midway, thus keeping the battlefleet close to Oahu, and using the carrier planes in conjunction with land based ones.

However, the number of Japanese planes in the air would be staggering, and after several waves of assault, the US plane forces would be severely crippled.

An all out naval battle would clearly advantage the Japanese. [but what would be intersting would be the damage done by the US submarines... ]

Night bombardments by IJN battleships on Oahu, coupled with bombings of the airstrips, would take out a large number of US planes.

Reinforcements (especialy spare planes) can't be ferried to Oahu, as the 10 IJN carriers mantain a blockade over the island, and anyway, the USN doesn't have any carriers left to do ferry mission.

Worst still, Japanese land - based bombers could operate from the Midway airstrips, covering as far as French Frigate Shoals (700km from Midway).

====

Thus, I would give a great chance of success to the Japanese, at least in severely crippling the US fleet and air force.
IF a land assault would be attempted, it could go both ways.

BUT, with teh USN and USAAF clearly beaten, I doubt there would be much hope left in retaking the Pacific, for many years to come.

Australia and the entire SE Asia not under Japanese control would soon crumble.

No more operation Torch - no more Rommell out of Africa, and it's probable that the British would lose North Africa by mid-1943.

No more US aid to the Russians, via the heavily escorted Arctic convoys, and ... no more Stalingrad and Kursk.

Etc...

===

All in all, I think if the Japanese high command would try to capitalise on the gains of Midway, they could obtain a staggering victory, as their air - core superiority could ensure rapid victories after that.



I know this is an older thread but I wonder what the response would be to a Japanese held Midway.

I would imagine large numbers of planes of several types being moved to Hawaii and an increase in easy to build jeep carriers being build while the Essex Class are being completed.

There is plenty of room for large number of bases to be placed on the various Islands that could mutually support each other.

Midway would be in range of P-38's, B-17's, B-24's and a number of other aircraft. I can imagine a constant threat from the existing Army Air bases as more are built to make taking out all the air assets on the ground being difficult.

I can see jeep carriers and other transports bringing in a steady supply of of planes, those that cannot reach Midway I think would act as defenders or a threat to ships that tried to venture too close. As the enough aircraft are landed on the islands I can see the Jeep carriers being used as mobile air bases set for defense to also maintain defense at constantly changing locations.

There are eight major islands that could deploy aircraft was well as many smaller ones like French French Frigate Shoals. As time goes by the there could be more and more aircraft dispersed across many locations that could be a threat to the Japanese on Midway.

I could also see AAA being built up to a massive degree at any location of value. This could make Midway unsustainable for Japan because of logistics and the fact that heavy bombers can reach Midway with a P-38 escort. The navy is not setting on the sidelines either, as the Essex Class comes into existence the threat grows from there. In the mean time the navy's aircraft would supplement the army aircraft in defense of the islands.

I think the taking of Midway and any attempt to take the other Islands just increases the Army Air presence in Hawaii as well as much more AAA capability while a newer more capable Navy is coming into being. I think if Japan tries to do anything it can do to hold Midway it will bleed out over time.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby jonsidneyb » Sun Oct 20, 2013 9:24 am

Even my silly response to all of this I don't think is even needed.

I think the logistics of it all would be it's undoing and even if not the USA has a lot of options.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby jonsidneyb » Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:04 am

Just checked. Fighter escort could be done using islands to the west of Pearl Harbor such as French Frigate Shoals.

I still think it is possible for the different islands to support each other in mutual defense with radar installed.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby alecsandros » Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:29 am

jonsidneyb wrote:Just checked. Fighter escort could be done using islands to the west of Pearl Harbor such as French Frigate Shoals.

I still think it is possible for the different islands to support each other in mutual defense with radar installed.

Of course it was possible,
but I don't know how probable.

It takes time to assemble the forces you mentioned and have them operational on the surrounding islands. At least a few weeks.

In all that time, the Japanese carriers (presuming them to be victorious in the initial battles) would attack the airfields and equipment at leisure, leaving them in ruins. Worst still, the carriers would enforce a blockade over the region, leaving ressuply a difficult job to do for the American forces.

And the Japanese would certainly start bringing in land-based warplanes of their own.

My guess is it would all depend on the initial attacks - and how well the US CVs and land-based planes would defend against the Japanese 600+ carrier-based warplanes.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby jonsidneyb » Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:50 pm

alecsandros wrote:
jonsidneyb wrote:Just checked. Fighter escort could be done using islands to the west of Pearl Harbor such as French Frigate Shoals.

I still think it is possible for the different islands to support each other in mutual defense with radar installed.

Of course it was possible,
but I don't know how probable.

It takes time to assemble the forces you mentioned and have them operational on the surrounding islands. At least a few weeks.

In all that time, the Japanese carriers (presuming them to be victorious in the initial battles) would attack the airfields and equipment at leisure, leaving them in ruins. Worst still, the carriers would enforce a blockade over the region, leaving ressuply a difficult job to do for the American forces.

And the Japanese would certainly start bringing in land-based warplanes of their own.

My guess is it would all depend on the initial attacks - and how well the US CVs and land-based planes would defend against the Japanese 600+ carrier-based warplanes.


Japan does not have to logistics to maintain Midway. The carriers cannot stay forever. Hawaii is a long chain of islands. It might take them awhile be bring this stuff up from state side but a thread to Hawaii might change the Germany first agreement. It I think would at least make it 50/50 or could become a Japan first situation.

There are a lot of islands between Midway and Hawaii and Midway is already in bomber range, go over a few islands and it is in P-38 range. Midway can only support about 100 or slightly more planes. Japan is going to have to go back and forth over long distances to resupply and support Midway which is right in the back yard of an already established major base at Hawaii.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby jonsidneyb » Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:33 pm

They also are going to even be able to shuttle aircraft in and they cannot cover both Midway and Hawaii. The Japanese did have the equipment for major landing operations and are already spread thin. Here are quite a few military personnel in Hawaii. Even in winning Midway they will have losses and speed of the US fleet on the defensive will not matter. When the Japanese fleet has to withdraw expect a surface action by the USN as well.

They should expect major bombing operations of B-24's and B-17 that flew in from the Mainland.

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby jonsidneyb » Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:05 pm

The Japanese fleet if Midway was taken would require that the ships be in constant motion burning fuel, if not they become targets for sub's looking for something to torpedo.

There is also this.

http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm

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Re: Japanese Victory at Midway

Postby alecsandros » Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:47 am

jonsidneyb wrote:Japan does not have to logistics to maintain Midway. The carriers cannot stay forever. Hawaii is a long chain of islands.


... My long post was about an attack on Hawaii, not on Midway.

Logistics issues would have been difficult, and also difficult would be to conquer all Hawaian islands. However, with the massive air and naval support the IJN fleet would have, they would have at least some chances of success.


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