Japanese Invasion US mainland

[Karl Heidenreich]

If someone thinks that by having Mexico as an ally that will help someone´s cause (Germany or Japan) against the USA you are wrong. The mexican army has been unable (nowadays) for some 20 years to beat some lousy guerrillas in Chiapas. The list of military blunders of the mexicans is so big that taking them as allies is done under your own responsability. I think that, by WWII; only the French could have been a worse ally...

[RF]

Those two examples are completely predictable knowing what we know now about the relative capabilities of the forces involved. They weren't fantastic at all.

I don't think that anything is automatic or completely predictable so far as military campaigns are concerned.

With respect, this is the sort of resoning which has led to the botched campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Each of the two campaigns I mentioned could and would have had different results had the Allied commanders acted differently, and that isn't said with the benefit of hindsight.

[RF]

If someone thinks that by having Mexico as an ally that will help someone´s cause (Germany or Japan) against the USA you are wrong. The mexican army has been unable (nowadays) for some 20 years to beat some lousy guerrillas in Chiapas. The list of military blunders of the mexicans is so big that taking them as allies is done under your own responsability. I think that, by WWII; only the French could have been a worse ally...

Again this is limited thinking, based on assumptions that Mexican forces would have to be decisive on their own, something which I never pretended to be the case. Reread my posts - you will see that the significance of Mexico is its geographic position, and not the strength or competence of its military forces......

[lwd]

lwd, the comments you make suggest to me that you are not understanding my pre-conditions.

Actually I just don't see any way they can exists. IE there is no POD or even any series of reasonable PODs that will result in your preconditions.

Firstly in 1940 if Britain were defeated, Japan would immediately move into Malaya and the Dutch East Indies, as well as French Indo-China. It is at that point that the US becomes antagonistic towards Japan, perceiving a threat to the Philippines. To meet such a threat and to emphasise to Japan that the US would fight to keep the Philipinnes I would expect the US Pacific Fleet to be moved to Pearl.

This might be sufficient to trigger a war between the US and Japan in and of itself. In any case the US is already antagonistic to Japan due to China. Or are you saying Japan doesn't go into China?

You then ask would the US get involved in a war with Germany without Britain? I'm sure that the US General Staff would be very concerned if Hitler got his hands on British and French warships and built up a substantial Atlantic presence, supported by the Italian Fleet. I never suggested the Italians operate in the Pacific; the availability of the ports of the French Empire, Spain, Portugal answers any supply and fuelling difficulties plus the facility to refuel at sea.

The problem is Germany isn't going to be able to operate British and French war ships for years and while there will be some concern in the US the orders are already in for more than enough ships to handle them by the time Germany can do anything with them. Then there's the fact that most of the British navy is unlikely to fall into German hands. Far more likely for it to be sunk or have sailed to Canada. The Italian ships don't have the range to operate in the Western Atlantic in any case and the US is very likely to snap up any French colonies in the Americas that go "Nazi" and the British ones are likely to fall under US protection as well rather than submit to Germany. So I don't see much in the way of support for Germany or Italy in the Western Atlantic.

A substantial surface threat can be built up in the western Atlantic, backed by U-boats and Luftwaffe bombers operating out of the Canaries, the Azores and then Bermuda and the various British and Dutch islands in the Caribbean. The question is at what point the US takes warlike action against Germany.

As soon as the Nazi's try to take over a single island in the Americas and perhpas even the Atlantic islands you mention the US is likely to get into the game and Axis powers can't hold anything in the Americas vs the US. Indeed US subs are probably more of a threat to Axis naval vessels than the other way around particularly in the Western Atlantic. The same for airpower.