Djoser wrote:... Now, the one most likely way I think Japan might possibly have achieved some sort of standoff peace treaty such as they desired? If they hadn't attacked Pearl Harbor, and the US Pacific Fleet tried the original Plan Orange. Imagine losing not just the Arizona and the Oklahoma, but the entire battleline? That could have happened, had the Long Lances hit them in deep water. From planes and destroyers as well in a night action perhaps. ...
Well before the war the Navy had decided that War plan Orange wasn't workable. As for the losses from the Long Lances (which by the way were not capable of being air launched) see:
Somewhere I also read an analysis that looked into US steaming formations and the likelyhood of the Japanese actually penetrating far enough to get to the US battleships and it didn't look good for the IJN.
I am currently reading a pretty decent book, War Plan Orange
(Edward S. Miller, Naval Institute Press), which posits that the US did in fact use War Plan Orange with great success. But with carriers as the main striking force, of course. I am only halfway through it, so I have not reached the point where the USN gives up the plan as you say 'well before the war'; did the planners really give it up entirely?
You got me on the Long Lances.
But those torpedoes at PH certainly did some lancing of battleship hulls!
Those links were fascinating, thanks for posting.
Remember, before we get into this new debate, that I am the one who said Japan's defeat was inevitable lol! I was trying to figure out some way that Japan might conceivably
have achieved the sort of 'backing down' defeat of the USA they were aiming for, and this seemed the most likely (even if unlikely) way.
Also, I am not so sure the old slow battleline would have fared well at all against the IJN in early '42. And as the second linked article states "US losses at sea in the Mandates would have been unrecoverable. US losses at its Fleet Base were repaired and modernized and brought forward to battle on US terms. The Kido Butai would not have missed its chance at Halsey and the US carriers in the Mandates as it did at Pearl Harbor."
But again as it states, they could have sunk the entire fleet in early '42, and still have faced an overwhelming opponent by '45.