Coral Sea with more ships

[Mostlyharmless]

I have been looking at the possible results of Admiral Nagano, Chief of Staff of the IJN, being in a very bad temper on the 18th October 1941 when Captain Kuroshima delivered Yamamoto's threat of resignation if the Pearl Harbor plan was not accepted. I am assuming that this results in the Combined Fleet not being commanded by Yamamoto and no Pearl Harbor. I am assuming that Japan attacked Malaya and the Netherlands East Indies on 8th December 1941 as OTL and that America shortly afterwards declared war. I am further assuming that there were raids by Kimmel on the Marshalls and Gilberts but no Doolittle Raid because Kimmel wants to keep his fleet concentrated (I have not decided if the IJN takes Wake). I am assuming that the war went mostly as OTL except for no IJN raid on Ceylon as the IJN is watching the Americans.

Now American code breaking suggests to Kimmel an attack on Port Moresby but the details are incomplete as OTL. Thus Kimmel moves all his 9 old battleships and his 4 available carriers to the Coral Sea. Yamato and 6 old battleships with one or two light carriers are near the invasion convoy. The Pearl Harbor force with two extra Kongos is entering the Coral Sea from the East unknown to Kimmel along the track of Takagi from OTL. Would anyone like to predict the outcome?

Supplementary questions:

Does it matter if Saratoga is present with the US Fleet giving them 5 carriers?

What if Phillips had not sailed to attack the Malaya landings because the Japanese had sent a strong force of battleships as support or alternatively if Prince of Wales had been torpedoed by a Japanese submarine on 9th December and had returned to port? This preserves the secret that battleships can be sunk by aircraft at sea.

What if various British ships are present?

ps. Distribute several IJN cruisers with their forces as seems most probable.

[lwd]

... Yamato and 6 old battleships with one or two light carriers are near the invasion convoy. ....

Historically the Coral Sea battle took place 4-8 May but Yamato was judged operational on 27 May.
http://www.combinedfleet.com/yamato.htm

Saratoga probably does make a signficant difference. Note that the US tended to opearte CVs in pairs or singly with some signficant seperation so finding one task group didn't mean that the Japanese woud find them all. Also remember that the US relied on it's carriers planes for scouting while the Japanse relied on float planes.

[RF]

If there is no attack on PH then the whole Japanese time table falls out of kilter as the US Pacific Fleet is given the initiative. The key question is the battle for the Philippines, which is ignored in the preamble to this thread. Too many imponderables are being thrown up as a result and it is quite possible that the Coral Sea battle never happens. Or indeed we have Leyte Gulf battle in 1942 instead of 1944.....

[lwd]

The USN had pretty well determined that they weren't going to be able to reinforce or relieve the Philipines for at least 6 months after war broke out and that's if they still held out. There are some serious questions about how this affects the allocation of ships though. For instance are any of the new US battleships sent to the Pacific in time for this battle? Are any of the older ones sent to the Atlantic and or sent to the yards for upgrades? Do the British see any need to send the POW and company to the Pacific? Are US battleships and escorts deployed to Australia to help check earlier Japanese offenses?

My take was that everything else went pretty much historically except that both sides seemed aimed at a "decisive battle" in the Coral Sea area.

[lwd]

I just started reading Neptune's Inferno (very highly rated so far by the way) and it mentions that the US didn't use it's older battleships more in the Gaudalcanal campaign due to lack of fuel oil. The Japanese were even more restrained in this regard. While both could probably have sent their forces into the region it's not clear how long they could have stayed. The book also makes the point that the US fast battleships were something like 30% more fuel efficient than the old ones. The implications to me is that if the US saw this coming at least some of the older battleships would have been refitting and being upgraded on the west coast and likely other moved to the east coast with the new battleships mored to Pacfic to take part in this battle.

[Bgile]

Yes, the fuel issue is dealt with in some detail in "Black Shoe Carrier Admiral". It was a continuing problem for Fletcher. There weren't enough tankers arriving in theater.