Francis Marliere wrote:I guess it would be possible, but not easy, to reach Germany.
First, AGS would probably take hits from Cumberland, Ajax and Achilles, and this damage may make the trip more difficult or imposible.
Then, the Allied had some strong naval forces searching for AGS in the South Atlantic : Force K with Ark Royal and Renown off the coast of Brazil, and Force X with Hermes, Dupleix, Foch, Neptune and 3 DD in vicinity of St Paul Rocks. AGS has good chances to be detected by air searches and, if not sunk outright by aerial torpedoes, catched by surface units.
Last, if AGS manages to get through Force K and X, British and French navies have 1 carrier (Furious), 3 battlecruisers (Hood, Repulse, Dunkerque), 4 battleships (Valiant, Warspite, Revenge, Resolution) plus lots of cruisers available to hunt him in Central and North Atlantic. The raider may or may not be intercepted depending on luck, skill and above all, weather conditions.
alecsandros wrote:... Maybe an escape attempt at dusk would increase her chances of escaping ? AJax and Achilles were low on ammo and I don't know if they would score telling hits... Cumberland may indeed cause heavy damage though...
Francis Marliere wrote: He would probably be concerned by his ammunition supply. AGS has, as Alecsandros said, 306 rounds left, but I guess thatmost of the remaining projectiles are probably HE ones, that may not be able to penetrate the armor of cruisers.
The situation, IMHO, does not look very well for AGS, but neither for the 3 RN cruisers that may take a good deal of punishment in the affair.
alecsandros wrote:How so ?
And why would Langsdorff need to close the range at all cost ?
Francis Marliere wrote:- the ship tries to npass through the British squadron and makes full speed toward the enemy. In this case, the Brits choose when they exit from the smoke screen, and hence the battle range. That means that AGS will probably fight well inside 6" and 8" (and probably torpedoes as well )effective range. The raider will probably take many hits that may leave him unable to cross the Atlantic.
alecsandros wrote:Graf Spee's sortie would not allow the British ships to stay in the same place and be blown out of the water. They would require manovreing and staying out of range of the heavy guns. Remember Ajax lost 50% of her armament from a single 11" hit.
alecsandros wrote:... In the hystorical battle, Graf Spee took 19 hits, from fully functional and with full ammo supply ships, yielding 16 x 6" guns and 6 x 8" guns with full ammo complement. Ajax+Achilles required 1600+ shells fired to score 17 hits, neither of which was particularly damaging. Their hit rate was ~ 1%, despite battle ranges down to 7km.
In a possible battle for Montevideo, Ajax, Achilles and Cumberland would yield 11 x 6" guns and 8 x 8" guns, with very few ammo remaining for the 6".
Graf Spee's sortie would not allow the British ships to stay in the same place and be blown out of the water. They would require manovreing and staying out of range of the heavy guns. Remember Ajax lost 50% of her armament from a single 11" hit.
I realy don't see any kind of advantage for the British force, as it was spread out along the Montevideo estuary, trying to close all the possible exits. This did not allow them to cover each other to well.
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