Pearl Harbor - all 3 USN carriers are discovered and attacked

[Francis Marliere]

As it was in 1942, the Americans hosted ~ 120 warplanes and several thousand men on the islands, so I don't see why the Japanese wouldn't be doing the same.

I can see two good reasons. First, Midway is relatively close, hence easy to supply from Hawaii. Second, USA are not as short in shipping as Japan is.

Best,

Francis

[alecsandros]

As it was in 1942, the Americans hosted ~ 120 warplanes and several thousand men on the islands, so I don't see why the Japanese wouldn't be doing the same.

I can see two good reasons. First, Midway is relatively close, hence easy to supply from Hawaii. Second, USA are not as short in shipping as Japan is.

Best,

Francis

... Of course, and on top of that the resupply ships would be traveling through submarine waters.

However, the Japanese invasion plan for Midway had some 5500 men and equipment to be transported in the initial phase alone. They must have had some plans to keep them alive and kicking.

[Steve Crandell]

As it was in 1942, the Americans hosted ~ 120 warplanes and several thousand men on the islands, so I don't see why the Japanese wouldn't be doing the same.

I can see two good reasons. First, Midway is relatively close, hence easy to supply from Hawaii. Second, USA are not as short in shipping as Japan is.

Best,

Francis

... Of course, and on top of that the resupply ships would be traveling through submarine waters.

However, the Japanese invasion plan for Midway had some 5500 men and equipment to be transported in the initial phase alone. They must have had some plans to keep them alive and kicking.

I believe the same troops were landed on Guadalcanal and expected to quickly eliminate the defenders.

[RF]

They woudl expand in the south pacific, and also to Midway - an excellently positioned reconaissance, ressuply and bomber base.

You overlook the fact, mentioned in my earlier post, that the Japanese were already logistically overstretched. They didn't have the shipping space or air support or enough troops to overrun New Guinea, which was largely defended by Australian forces.

Taking Midway Island certainly could have been done - but it would quickly become a target for the Americans and drain Japanese resources defending it.

Two key points - the US submarine campaign off the coast of Japan and its conquests would still have happened, destroying most of Japan's merchant shipping and a large part of its surface fleet.
Secondly the US Navy isn't just aircraft carriers. Carriers were less important in the Atlantic, where the British were using convoy escort carriers. US battleships would still be available for Torch even if Roosevelt sent all US carriers into the Pacific.

[alecsandros]

They woudl expand in the south pacific, and also to Midway - an excellently positioned reconaissance, ressuply and bomber base.

You overlook the fact, mentioned in my earlier post, that the Japanese were already logistically overstretched. They didn't have the shipping space or air support or enough troops to overrun New Guinea, which was largely defended by Australian forces.

... They were overstretched in the hystorical timeframe. A possible lack of US carriers would change most of the 1942 timeline...

Taking Midway Island certainly could have been done - but it would quickly become a target for the Americans and drain Japanese resources defending it.

A target - yes, but without carriers, how would this target be attacked ?

Secondly the US Navy isn't just aircraft carriers. Carriers were less important in the Atlantic, where the British were using convoy escort carriers. US battleships would still be available for Torch even if Roosevelt sent all US carriers into the Pacific.

That;s true, but I doubt the US planners would allow any amphibious assault without serious local air cover...

[Dave Saxton]

Two key points - the US submarine campaign off the coast of Japan and its conquests would still have happened, destroying most of Japan's merchant shipping and a large part of its surface fleet.
Secondly the US Navy isn't just aircraft carriers. Carriers were less important in the Atlantic, where the British were using convoy escort carriers. US battleships would still be available for Torch even if Roosevelt sent all US carriers into the Pacific.

The USN submarine offence is often looked at as a foot note to the war in the Pacific, but the truth is that the Japanese Empire was sunk by USN (and some RN and Dutch ) submarines. The USN succeeded were the KM failed: to cut off and blockade, starve, and destroy the ability to make war, an Island nation by submarines. And this was all done with a very faulty torpedo for two years of the three years it took to do it. It was just as important, if not more so, as the carrier operations to victory in the Pacific.

Midway Island was a key base for US submarines though. Subs on the way out from Pearl stopped to top off fuel tanks at Midway and without that they would not have bean able to stay on station within the Japanese Empire's shipping lanes (7 more days sailing to the west on the surface to get there) for long. Midway also served as the most important forward base. Subs returning from patrol would often just go to Midway instead of all the way to Pearl to re-torpedo and to refuel. Taking Midway would have been a major blow against USN sub operations.

The USN would have certainly transferred all their remaining carrier assets to the Pacific without question, and transferred the remaining old battleships to the Atlantic. New battleships like Washington would have been sent directly to the Pacific with the remaining US carriers.

[RF]

A target - yes, but without carriers, how would this target be attacked ?

By land based bombers from Hawaii. Without radar the Japanese on Midway would be in a difficult position to deal with repeated attacks.

[RF]

Midway Island was a key base for US submarines though. Subs on the way out from Pearl stopped to top off fuel tanks at Midway and without that they would not have bean able to stay on station within the Japanese Empire's shipping lanes (7 more days sailing to the west on the surface to get there) for long. Midway also served as the most important forward base.with the remaining US carriers.

As an alternative to Midway the Americans would use the same method as the Germans - use submarine tankers and special supply ships, until Midway was recaptured.

[Steve Crandell]

A target - yes, but without carriers, how would this target be attacked ?

By land based bombers from Hawaii. Without radar the Japanese on Midway would be in a difficult position to deal with repeated attacks.

Actually, I researched that. If the B-24 was the longest range US bomber (I assumed that), Midway would be slightly beyond it's range with a reduced bomb load from Oahu. If an air strip was built somewhere up the Hawaiian Island chain, maybe it would be possible.

In any case, it would be retaken ASAP to support the submarine offensive and to protect Hawaii. The Japanese couldn't adequately defend it that far from their next nearest base.

[Francis Marliere]

I may be mistaken, but I consider that while the Japanese did make some mistakes, they were not stupid. The conquest of Midway would be of little gain and would cost a lot (at least in terms of shipping). It would make more sense for them to use their force (warships, planes, soldiers, shipping, oil, etc.) in a more efficient way, probably in the South Pacific (Fidji, may be Samoa and / or New Caledonia).

[RF]

Or better still go all out and assault Hawaii, not pussyfoot around with South Pacific island groups, New Guinea or the Coral Sea or raiding in the Indian Ocean.

[RF]

I may be mistaken, but I consider that while the Japanese did make some mistakes, they were not stupid.

I think the final verdict on that will be harsh - in terms of the absolute defeat that Japan suffered the decision to go to war cannot be described as anything other than stupid, on the part of Tojo and Hirohito.

[Garyt]

in terms of the absolute defeat that Japan suffered the decision to go to war cannot be described as anything other than stupid, on the part of Tojo and Hirohito.

I would say that the desire of America to continue a war was misjudged. The Japanese looked at the US as desiring to stay out of war, and not staying in a war long if involved in one. A serious misjudgment, but I don't think stupid is the right term.

I don't think any o Japan's senior military leaders expected Japan to win a long drawn out war with the US.

[Steve Crandell]

Or better still go all out and assault Hawaii, not pussyfoot around with South Pacific island groups, New Guinea or the Coral Sea or raiding in the Indian Ocean.

Considering the difficulty the US had in sustaining one Marine division on Guadalcanal and the size and defenses of Oahu (16" guns and on down) I don't think that was ever a real possibility. They just didn't have the logistics to do that 3800+ miles from Japan. It was a masterful feat just getting the carrier strike group there for that attack on Pearl Harbor.

[Garyt]

Considering the difficulty the US had in sustaining one Marine division on Guadalcanal and the size and defenses of Oahu (16" guns and on down) I don't think that was ever a real possibility. They just didn't have the logistics to do that 3800+ miles from Japan. It was a masterful feat just getting the carrier strike group there for that attack on Pearl Harbor.

I think I'd agree for the most part, early war amphibious assaults were not quite on par with later war assaults for anyone, and the Japanese I think were less advanced than the US in this regard.

But perhaps a largely unopposed landing such as right after the initial airstrikes on Oahu would have met with some sucess though. This would have been a real real gamble, but if successful would have entrenched the Japanese well.

The US sub campaign would become much more difficult, the Japanese may capture a fair amount of fuel, and US Pacific operations would have to likely be based on the West Coast.