Bismarck and Prinz Eugen are joined by Tirpitz

[Karl Heidenreich]

Hi friends!

I´m wondering the outcome of this scenario:
The Tirpitz skipper told his superiors in late April 1941 that his vessel was ready to steam with Bismarck at Rheinübung. At least Tirpitz was more or less in PoW´s condition at the time with the advantage that her 8 x 15" main mounts didn´t had the PoW´s two quadruple 14" turrets problems.
So, Raeder let Tirpitz go with Bismarck but not in Prinz Eugen´s place but with Prinz Eugen.
Of course they are sighted by the Swedish cruiser. Of course the British Admiralty went ape at the sight not of one German BB but two of them with a heavy cruiser. The squadron (now we can talk of something like a squadron here) went to Norway where all three ships are refueled and just before the RAF attack they steamed again northward.
The rest could be History with the next questions:

a) Would Tovey reinforce Hood and PoW with Repulse or another BB or BC to face the Germans? What then?
b) Or would he waited until the Germans appeared (risking a breakthrough into the Atlantic) to launch against them the following squadron: KGV + Hood + PoW + Repulse + Rodney. The patrols would be in the cruisers´hands to sight, follow and report to the capital units.
c) Would he lose his nerve at risking the German squadron force their way out into the Atlantic? By doing so he would launch an ill conceived attack with Hood and PoW + Norfolk and Suffolk (as Holland intended in the first place). Then what? Hood + PoW sunk? Hood + PoW + 1 or 2 cruisers sunk? Or just Hood as in History?
d) If this last thing happened then the Germans could have escaped with less damage (PoW didn´t had the chance to target Bismarck because Tirpitz would had been hammering her badly). If they escaped would they turned home via Denmarck Straits, or to a French port, or to turn loose into the Atlantic and risk the hunting?
I believe it´s quite an scenario. Don´t you think?

Very best regards!

[ostriker]

Good scenario

If the german squadron get no serious damage, i think they had to continue, the goal of the operation was to go trough the Atlantic to raid against british convoys.

Lutjens, knowing his squadron had a wonderfull fire capacity, no damage, had to continue his mission. I remember that in the movie "sink the bismarck" lutjens tell to Lindeman "imagine if Scharnorst and Gneisenau join us...". So i think, Tirpitz + Bismarck + PE, possibly joined later by smaller ships like DD continued their missions to the south, where was only the Old Ramilies.

Regards

[Karl Heidenreich]

Ostriker states:

If the german squadron get no serious damage, i think they had to continue, the goal of the operation was to go trough the Atlantic to raid against british convoys.

That´s one posibility, yes. But let´s think of this: the whole idea of Rheinubung was to go to the North Atlantic undetected, so that the German Squadron can intercept, with tactical surprise, the enemy convoys. But after the engagement at Denmarck Straits that surprise is blown away. If, indeed, Bismarck is steaming with Tirpitz and Prinz Eugen and the Hood + another BB are sunk then we can expect a more fanatic hunting than the Historical one, even a US direct naval intervention bringing units from the West side of the Atlantic!
In this case I do believe that Lutjens would retreat again, even with a superior squadron. But that doesn´t sound that bad if, as Ostriker says, the German Squadron is not heavily damaged (which I believe because this time PoW wasn´t allowed to target Bismarck because Tirpitz was in the process of sinking her). Then, on their way to a French port (let´s exclude a return via Denmarck Straits), the retreating Germans would face the KGV + Repulse + Rodney and the Force H with Renown and possibly Ramillies. Well, I have to agree that not all of them would be available at the same time to face the Germans but some of them would. Then we would have had a fleet action.
In this case I believe that given the units involved the Germans still had the advantage with two Bismarck Class BB + 1 HC (16 x 15" + 8 x 8") against 1 KGV class BB + 1 Nelson Class BB + 1 Renown Class BC (9 x 16" + 6 x 15" + 10 x 14"). Nominal the Germans are outgunned but, as in the real Denmarck Straits, the British are the ones with problems with the quadruple turrets in KGV and the Rodney´s 16" didn´t stand to their nominal calibre. The question here is that Repulse fame of supreme fire direction be of enough weight. Prinz Eugen may be a distraction to the BC while Bismarck and Tirpitz engage the BBs. Even with the loss of the PE at Repulse´s hands maybe the Big Twins can sink the slow and lightly armoured Rodney and heavily damaging the KGV the way Bismarck damaged PoW in the real DS. In that case Repulse would have had to cover KGV´s retreat and letting the Germans reach safety.
Well that´s one idea.
Regards!

[Bgile]

I'm a bit skeptical that the Germans can sink 3 British battleships with no cost to themselves, but this whole idea of alternate history hurts my brain once you get past 1v1. :)

[ostriker]

even a US direct naval intervention bringing units from the West side of the Atlantic!

Yes, this one is also explained in the book "the two fights of the bismarck" by a survivor (i don't remember of his name, baron von...).

Churchill ask Roosevelt for any informations about warships sighted by US naval forces.
So in this case, US fleet can join the hunt.
So, now there is two questions:

- If US joign the hunt with her west coast fleet, what is the political impact?
- In may 1941, what US capital ships were ont he west coast?

Regards

[ufo]

... lightly armoured Rodney ...

Well that´s one idea.
Regards!

[ufo]

I'm a bit skeptical that the Germans can sink 3 British battleships with no cost to themselves, but this whole idea of alternate history hurts my brain once you get past 1v1. :)

[Karl Heidenreich]

ufo:

Bgile wrote:
I'm a bit skeptical that the Germans can sink 3 British battleships with no cost to themselves, but this whole idea of alternate history hurts my brain once you get past 1v1. :)

Admiral Holland and his pal Admiral Tovey were skeptical too... Bismarck prove them wrong with a heavy casualty list.
That´s why for Bismarck´s hunt the British orders were clear: no 1 vs 1 engagement again; have Ramillies as far as possible; the PoW to be at the very rear and wait for KGV + Rodney + Force H + cruisers + destroyers ++++++!!
The Hood was the one that sunk after six minutes, the Bismarck was the one scuttled after more than 2,000 shells fired at her by a vast superior force.
Then, two Bismarck Class BBs can stand a chance, don´t you think?

[iankw]

Of course they stand a chance Karl. But the very fact that Hood only lasted 6 minutes means you haven't much of a database to work with. I still feel, as I have said before on other threads, that you are assuming an awful lot on very little evidence. Additionally you have the problem of Tirpitz not being ready, whatever her Captain said!! Antonio recently posted about the readiness of Tirpitz (I have tried to find that particular post with no success). From what I remember Captain Topp reported Tirpitz NOT ready for a later operation, because of gunnery issues. I applaud Captain Topps optimism but that doesn't cause shells to hit, or ships to sink.

regards

[Antonio Bonomi]

Ciao Iankw and all,

here it is :

http://www.readybb.com/hmshood/viewtopi ... sc&start=0

Ciao Antonio

[ufo]

Hej Karl!

Well – I think one point that joins us here is that we all do like to some extend the Battleship Bismarck. I do! Yet I do not like the virtual Ueberschlachtschiff Bismarck. There are many WebPages out there about Bismarck. kbismarck.com is one of the few where genuine information is provided for the benefit of the curious public or just geeks like us. On Jose’s pages you find genuine, well-researched information, the good, the bad and the ugly. It does the site no honour when in the accompanying forum a completely different Bismarck roams the virtual seas.

The what-if scenarios here often remind me of an old friend of mine. He got quite hooked on a computer game yet it was never real enthusiasm. He played like mad for a week but than he has enough for a fortnight. Until – well, until he played it flat out day and night. He had found where in the source code the hit probabilities for the Aliens and for the good guy where …
The Bismarck here is sometimes alike. Her speed counts plus VAT, her armour with a Council tax allowance, her guns go plus sales tax – everything just a little bigger. Fun! But meaningless.

In your scenario Bismarck, Tirpitz and the Prinz meet King George, Rodney and Renown. As you describe, I agree there can be few doubt that Renown kills the Prinz. The Prinz can fire fast and aim well but it is not really a fair match. Renowns superstructure will be in shambles but that’s it.
That leaves Bismarck and Tirpitz against King George and Renown and … well that is were I loose the plot in your scenario. There is a “lightly armoured Rodney” ?!? The only one I happen to know is a British battleship of 1927 vintage; a well armoured beast. A Kriegsmarine gunnery manual comparing immunity zones of a Bismarck class against a Nelson class heavily favours the Brit!?! So what Rodney do you mean?
Your Rodney has 16” guns, “that did not stand to their nominal calibre”. Well – the one I know killed Bismarck and proved her accuracy of aim again in the Normandy. Not much wrong with her guns.
The King George in your scenario barely gets a shell away. Hm – yes, they had problems. Yet if you look at the hits per engaged barrel rate for the Prince and Bismarck at Denmark Straight there is not really that enormous difference. And the King was good enough to join in the kill of Bismarck, the Duke killed Scharnhorst. They were not that bad after all.
I would have understood if you had taken the stand that may be instead of 8 x 15” versus 10 x 14” one should penalise the King George with only 8 x 14”. But there is few doubt she was a battleship well up to take on a Bismarck. Yet in your what-if she does not play a role. She is just gun fodder.

So in the scenario I see there is a Bismarck and a Tirpitz up against a Rodney, superior in Firepower and Armour (as stated by the Kriegsmarine) and a King George that is a close match for one of them.

Yes – it’s a close call and – yes – the Germans (German wrecks) might reach safety (kind of). But it is far from easy or even clear and the Brits are the ones in the pole position. Likelihood is against the Germans.



Now that Hood sunk after six minutes was a shame but in a battleship versus battleship duel that happens. It is not likely, but it happens. Every battleship blows up if caught out width her immunity zone and another one sends a shell into her vitals. Likelihood for that happening is small but it happened. But to draw conclusions from that?
On the other hand to have 2000 shells fired at one and then be a blazing wreck; what achievement is that? Battleships are difficult to sink with gunfire until you are lucky and hit the magazines. Hat Frazer’s force expended all her torpedoes, Scharnhorst would have lasted till dawn and suffered the same slow death of a thousand cuts. Bismarck was dead after her control posts and guns were silenced. That she refused to sink caused the Brits to continue firing and needlessly kill her men because her command structures were disrupted to an extend that no one could order the ensign down to have her scuttled in a ceasefire. Not quite a benefit to her crew?
So – where is the striking advantage?

Questions over question but I have no doubt we shall meet at the same ships at some point.

Ciao,
Ufo

[Karl Heidenreich]

I have two things to say here:
1. The whole idea of an Hypothetical Naval Scenario is to create a new premise, which is obvious not to be the original or historical one: it has to be different and inovative.
In this case we introduce a new ship in the historical background: Tirpitz is ready (why introduce a half ready ship? If this the case so don´t introduce Tirpitz or any ship at all and let things as they are)
We have two 100% operational Bismarck Class BBs + PE. To this new threat we put the existing RN forces. Why the existing? Because if we put another one we lose the premise from which we start. OK?

2. Antonio Bonomi is the only one whose analysis goes beyond a technical one: he give us tactical and strategic thinking besides the raw data. I say this because the typical analysis in these threads goes like this: one ship with so many guns of this caliber against another ship that had these other guns of another caliber.... and so on. And the issues in the battlefield go beyond that.
If you want to go quantitative or strictly qualitative then do the following exercise: Bismarck + PE against Hood + PoW + 2 cruisers (8 x 15" + 8 x 8" vs. 8 x 15" + 10 x 14" + 16 x 8"). Add to that all the available data on shells, ranges, angles, fuzes, armour, etc. etc. and you´ll have a certain British victory!!
See?
We know for a fact what happened at Denmarck Straits. So what good does to us to ignore it and focus only with raw data that acertain that the outcome will be the other way? How can we quantify the fact that the Hood didn´t aimed at Bismarck from the start? How can you quantify the fact that Norfolk and Suffolk didn´t intervene against the Germans?
On the other hand there is a combat issue called "moral ascendency" that is a much more important factor than armour thickness or shell detonation. It´s part of Clausewitz theory: For example, when the Germans hit the Ardennes in 1941 and broke the French Line in two the French Generals simply gave up, even when the French Army was far from being beaten. Winston Churchill flew to France and talked with them and they told him that everything was lost. In this case the Germans achieved a moral ascendency over the French a month before the final surrender. Another example: after the fall of Stralingrad and the battle of Kursk in 1943 the German moral ascendency that they had from spring 1941 to fall 1942 over the russians fell and the Red Army achieve it instead.

What all this have to do with Bismarck? When Bismarck blew the Hood sky high the impact on the battlefield was such that PoW was defeated without being phisycally destroyed. To that we have to add the fact the the Germans put some hits in the British BB.
Then, if we add a new German BB (100% operational) to this scenario, really, what do you think will happen?
Bismarck finishes Hood while Pow is being punished by Tirpitz. No PoW´s hits on Bismarck because she is fighting for her sole existence. If PoW is finished there or the next year is not relevant: two German BBs + a HC are set lose into the North Atlantic without great damage (no hole in Bismarck´s bow and so on).
It´s here when the real Hypothetical Scenario assumes: what are going to do the brits?
Send everything they got: KG5, Repulse, Rodney, Ramillies, H Force, cruisers and destroyers? The US will get directly involved? Lütjens will follow the original idea knowing that he is the center of such a hunt? Would Lütjens return via Denmarck Straits or risk a battle (Langsdorf style) against Home Fleet?
And why not: knowing the problems the KGV Class had with their quadruple mounts and that Rodney was not a fast BB (in comparison with her first rate contemporaries as Bismarck, Richelieu, North Carolina, etc) then a German smash would not be that impossible.

But here comes Antonio´s reasoning: would that affect the final Atlantic Campaign outcome? Even with Hood + PoW + another BB sunk and the Germans would probably had lost something (PE or one of the Bismarck Class). Germany didn´t had the means to replace any of the two ships. Germany didn´t had aircraft carriers. Then it would had been a pyrric victory, strategicaly talking because Great Britain had many capital ships to replace those lost.
But the issue of the tactical outcome of this scenario is not far from being possible the same way the original and factual lost of Hood wasn´t impossible at the end, no matter how many 15" and 14" guns were aimed against Bismarck at Denmarck Straits.
Being an Hypothetical Scenario we must admit that a battle with tragic consequences for the British is more than possible. Well, let´s hope that Tirpitz doesn´t misread Lütjens orders and target Nortfolk instead of PoW... that can also happened.

[iankw]

Thanks Antonio

Karl, at the risk of annoying you again, which is not my intention, I will reply.

Ok, it's an alternative scenario. Your scenario goes against history by declaring Tirpitz fit to take part - ok I can run with that. Then we go back to being historically accurate again by having Hood sink - why? In the meantime PoW is being sunk by the unhistorical Tirpitz and can't fight back effectively because of the historical problems with it's guns!! Tirpitz could misunderstand orders and fire at the wrong ship, but I'd bet good money that she won't, not in this scenario. Moving on we then have a unhistorically weak Rodney and a historically weak PoW2, now called KGV, which unhistorically can't hit anything. Luckily the RN manage to get PE!!

The problem I have here is that the alternative history only seems to run in one direction, which is often the case. The conclusion of all this would seem to me to be - the RN realises it is hopelessly outclassed and stays at home whilst many more merchant sailors are sent to their deaths, which is the mission Bismarck, Tirpitz et al was about.

Please don't take offense Karl, it isn't my intention, just my opinion. I may be wrong, I have been before and, I'm sure, I will be again.

regards

[ufo]

@Karl

Hm – ok – I got the point and – well – no, we will not end at the same analysis then .

You ask how to take into account that Norfolk and Suffolk did not engage from the start, how to take into account that Hood aimed at the Prince instead Bismarck as she should have done, and …

That is to some extend the point I tried to make with the computer game. You just reduce the value on one side by adding fudge factors until finally everything works out fine.

How now, do you take into account the problems with Bismarck’s push button steering, how do you take into account that the Prinz did not get a single torpedo away yet heard plenty in the water, how …


What then about a Denmark Straight encounter, where the Prinz hears torpedoes, Tirpitz evades, Bismarck’s steering fails and she crashes right into Tirpitz, sinking both while the Prinz manages to damage and subsequently sink Prince and Hood by well aimed torpedoes?

As I understood that is to some extend the question Bgile raised with his post.

If you do add psychological factors and moral amendments into this kind of analysis you can end up virtually everywhere and we could probably compete in making up the most fascinating Rheinübung with the Crew of the sinking Prince boarding and capturing Bismarck, cutlass between the teeth, while the Prinz captures Hood and tows her in triumph to St Nazaire. Bismarck in this scenario never reaches Portsmouth because of this one sailor and the famous last words “What does this German sign tell? Well – I just press here …” So it all ends in German glory.

Ciao,
Ufo

[Karl Heidenreich]

UFO:

How now, do you take into account the problems with Bismarck’s push button steering, how do you take into account that the Prinz did not get a single torpedo away yet heard plenty in the water, how …


What then about a Denmark Straight encounter, where the Prinz hears torpedoes, Tirpitz evades, Bismarck’s steering fails and she crashes right into Tirpitz, sinking both while the Prinz manages to damage and subsequently sink Prince and Hood by well aimed torpedoes?

As I understood that is to some extend the question Bgile raised with his post.

If you do add psychological factors and moral amendments into this kind of analysis you can end up virtually everywhere and we could probably compete in making up the most fascinating Rheinübung with the Crew of the sinking Prince boarding and capturing Bismarck, cutlass between the teeth, while the Prinz captures Hood and tows her in triumph to St Nazaire. Bismarck in this scenario never reaches Portsmouth because of this one sailor and the famous last words “What does this German sign tell? Well – I just press here …” So it all ends in German glory.

Ciao,
Ufo

I have to admit that you got it better than I: but I like it!!!
Ufo and Iankw, sorry if you misundertand me but the idea was never to bring up a scenario which the Germans would win without any doubts. The idea was to put a new element that can change History as we know it, at least at the tactical level. I must admit that I didn´t compute Bismarck steering problem (which was probably due to some human error and not a mechanical one) and the PE´s torpedo launch and sighting performance at Denmarck Straits.
Anyway, in my defense I must say that, if you read carefully my posts I never said that the Germans got unscratched in the meleé: I stated that probably PE and one of the Bismarck Class could be sunk by the British. In statistical terms if the Germans got Hood + PoW + somebody else the British had, what?, 7.5% of causalties from their fleet while if the Germans lost a Bismarck Class + PE they are loosing the 50% of their main BB force (25% if we count Schanhorst and Gniesenau) and with PE more or less 20% of their total surface fleet.
But a boarding party from PoW taking Bismarck isn´t that bad, remember that the Royal Navy was born from pirates and pirate´s tactics and capable of incredible deeds!

But I still think that an uninhistorical Tirpitz with a historical Bismarck would be a a menace to the brits bigger than the arithmetical sum of the parts.

Very best regards!