How might China attack Taiwan

[Literalman]

If China moves to absorb Taiwan with military action, what will it do?

In “How China Might Invade Taiwan” (Naval War College Review,Vol. 54, No. 4, Autumn 2001, Article 5, https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-r ... l54/iss4/5), Piers M. Wood and Charles D. Ferguson posited a phased assault, with the Chinese capturing first Quemoy and then the Peng Hu islands, bringing Chinese forces closer to Taiwan. The authors expected that these steps would not trigger U.S. intervention but would place Taiwan in a weaker position. The authors expected that a Chinese invasion would require an amphibious assault and that China would not use nuclear weapons.

This was written more than 20 years ago, and China has expanded its armed forces and acquired more powerful weapons, notably missiles that could target U.S. carrier groups. However, one thing may not have changed: an assumption that China would use standard military strategy and tactics.

Even if China could wipe out some of the U.S. naval forces facing it, it still would not be guaranteed to win a war to absorb Taiwan. My guess is that China would like to keep the United States out of the war. How could it do that? Here are some approaches that I think China might take. What do you think?

1. China could try to get the United States entangled in a war in Korea. China might encourage North Korea to attack the South, maybe even with nuclear weapons. Battlefield nuclear weapons might give North Korea an edge in an invasion. China might even encourage a nuclear attack on Seoul. After waiting a few weeks to let the U.S. forces become fully engaged in Korea, China might then, on the eve of attacking Taiwan, tell the United States to stay out of the battle for Taiwan or else the destruction of Seoul would be matched in U.S. cities. Even if North Korea did not use nuclear weapons, an attack on the South would surely draw in U.S. conventional forces. With them fully occupied in Korea, the United States might not be able to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and might not risk a nuclear conflict over Taiwan (which the war could escalate to even if North Korea did not use nuclear weapons).

2. Whether or not China has to fight the United States over Taiwan, China might use electromagnetic pulse weapons against Taiwan to disrupt society when launching an attack. Even if all of Taiwan’s military communications and hardware are shielded against an electromagnetic pulse, civilian communications might be brought to a halt, making civil defense, evacuations, and supply impossible. Rather than launch an invasion of Taiwan right away, the Chinese might follow the electromagnetic pulse attack with an airborne blitzkrieg to capture Taipei, disrupt Taiwan’s command and control, and make the United States conclude that a battle for Taiwan would be hopeless. I think that the United States would still go to war with China, though.

3. Besides an electromagnetic pulse attack against Taiwan, China might use electromagnetic pulse weapons against the Philippines as well. Even if American bases there were not harmed, the disruption of society would hamper U.S. military efforts. Immediately following these attacks and concurrent with an airborne blitzkrieg against Taipei, China might try to knock out the U.S. Pacific fleet at the outset of a war, using nuclear depth charges against submarines and nuclear missiles against carrier groups. This indeed might degrade U.S. capability so much that defeating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might be unlikely. Like Japan attacking the United States in 1941, China might think that the United States would sue for peace rather than go to war with so much of its naval forces destroyed. But China would be wrong.

[Literalman]

I meant to have a question mark at the end of that title: How might China attack Taiwan?

[paul.mercer]

Gentlemen,
I think It also depends how far the USA would go to protect Taiwan and whether they would be prepared to start a war with China over it.

[RF]

My approach to this is could China successfully invade Taiwan with sea borne assault?

It has been intimated through CIA sources that the possibility of failure is the biggest deterrent to China starting a war.

Taiwan is much more heavily armed than Ukraine was before the Russian invasion, or even the Ukraine of today. Taiwan has the world's tenth largest navy, is very mountainous with many railway tunnels and silo's, has missiles that can penetrate deep into mainland China. Is a war short term winnable?

I'd say not. And if there are problems domestically that tips the balance further. The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the near ten year war hastened the end of the Soviet Union. Taiwan, if attacked, could hasten the end of the rule of the Chinese Communist Party in China, if the attack fails.