Chinese naval domination of the Indian Ocean

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AngloSaxonVangaurd
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Chinese naval domination of the Indian Ocean

Postby AngloSaxonVangaurd » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:30 pm

People tend to forget the rising Chinese naval threat toward India and ultimate domination of the Indian Ocean. The Indian navy will always be but an insignificant blip in the shadows of the Chinese navy, can India really hope to achieve total naval supremacy over the Indian Ocean????

IMF forecasts the Chinese economy to hit $9.5+ Trillion (nominal) by 2015, India will have only just overtook Italy's economy by 2015 at little over $2.6 trillion (nominal). Given the advantage in every aspect China enjoys over India now (with that gap only to grow in the coming decades) India will have to accept it will never become the Power it wishes to be.

India will have 3 Carrier battle groups by 2020, however they will be supported by a small and outdated escort fleet. Not enough to compete with Chinas 70+ escort fleet with far superior vessels and a far larger and more modern SSK/SSN force. China could field a single carrier battle group by 2020, but 2030 at the earliest before china develops the skills and experience until it becomes a true asset. China could if needed use land based aircraft to give limited air cover, but it isn't essential vs such a small outdated Indian Navy who's only advantage is 3 unprotected carriers.

Once Chinas Navy goes blue (before 2020), China will seek to make its presence known in the Indian Ocean, to the Suez, down the east coast of Africa. All these regions are vital for Chinas sphere or influence and maintaining Chinas dominance in world trade. India won't stand a chance.

Chinas relationship with Pakistan is also vital, Pakistan will gradually re-arm its forces with modern Chinese military hardware. Pakistan's air-force TODAY is already capable of challenging India's western air-forces alone. Against China the Indian air-force would fall apart.

There is no room for China and India to co-exist as rival powers each aiming to dominate Asia and the world as the leading superpower, thus India will be forced to dismantle as a nation at the hands of China by means of Economic and Military superiority. - Much to the delight of Pakistan.

India is living in a dream right now, China could steamroll India at anytime, 20 30 years ago the situation was very different, but this is now Chinas era which will last the next few 100 years at-least.

The difference between India and China is that China took 70 years of "revolution" to get to-where it was today and only whispered the thought of ever becoming a global power, India has rode on the back of the west and automatically think it has the right and deserves to be a superpower no mater what.

Question is, will the USA or the EU come to India's aid? I wouldn't say so, and I would hope not. The consequences would be too great.

China will soon rule the waves, and China's future depends on it if it wishes to protect its global trade routes.

lwd
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Re: Chinese naval domination of the Indian Ocean

Postby lwd » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:24 pm

AngloSaxonVangaurd wrote:.... The Indian navy will always be but an insignificant blip in the shadows of the Chinese navy,

That's an awfully bold statement to make.
can India really hope to achieve total naval supremacy over the Indian Ocean????

Is there any indication that that is their aim?
... Given the advantage in every aspect China enjoys over India now (with that gap only to grow in the coming decades) India will have to accept it will never become the Power it wishes to be.

China also has problems India doesn't have (and visa versa). Singular unbounded projections are almost certain to be wrong.

India will have 3 Carrier battle groups by 2020, however they will be supported by a small and outdated escort fleet. Not enough to compete with Chinas 70+ escort fleet with far superior vessels and a far larger and more modern SSK/SSN force. China could field a single carrier battle group by 2020, but 2030 at the earliest before china develops the skills and experience until it becomes a true asset. China could if needed use land based aircraft to give limited air cover, but it isn't essential vs such a small outdated Indian Navy who's only advantage is 3 unprotected carriers.

Thus totally neglecting India's land based air. Nor does it allow for tactical factors like proximaty to bases and for that matter potential allies.
... Chinas relationship with Pakistan is also vital, Pakistan will gradually re-arm its forces with modern Chinese military hardware.

Possible but hardly certain.
Pakistan's air-force TODAY is already capable of challenging India's western air-forces alone.

Is it? For how long?
Against China the Indian air-force would fall apart.

Possibly.
There is no room for China and India to co-exist as rival powers each aiming to dominate Asia and the world as the leading superpower, thus India will be forced to dismantle as a nation at the hands of China by means of Economic and Military superiority.

Really? I certainly don't see it as anywhere near as defintive as you do.
... China could steamroll India at anytime, 20 30 years ago the situation was very different, but this is now Chinas era which will last the next few 100 years at-least.

Or not
... Question is, will the USA or the EU come to India's aid? I wouldn't say so, and I would hope not. The consequences would be too great.

I rather think the opposite. The consequences of not doing so would be too great. Furthermore if done soon enough any hostilities may well be prevented or at least minimized.
China will soon rule the waves,

Unlikely at least if by "soon" you mean any time in the next several decades.
and China's future depends on it if it wishes to protect its global trade routes.

Not really.

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RF
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Re: Chinese naval domination of the Indian Ocean

Postby RF » Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:54 am

I think the potential strategic threat of China in the Indian Ocean is overstated. And I think that any idea of the EU ''coming to the rescue of India'' is an absolute fantasy.

How exactly are the Chinese able to maintain a permanent large fleet in the Indian Ocean - the access points are awkward, would either Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia or New Zealand be happy with large numbers of Chinese Navy ships passing their coastlines?
''Give me a Ping and one Ping only'' - Sean Connery.


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