Would the Pacific war have happened without the European war

[lwd]

Remember also that China was a big market for the Europeans. In particular France and Great Britain. With nothing happening in Europe they can discourage Japanese adventurism in China and would be united with the US in doing so. This makes them too strong for the Japanese to reasonably take on. Now if the Japanese end up in a one on one with say the French that's another matter but China is the key.

[RF]

A big market also for the Americans. The French perhaps of lesser importance as their interests were in Indo -China rather than China itself, whereas the British have Hong Kong and various other colonial concessions. With regard to commerce another aspect would be of whether the Japanese would permit access to Manchuria for outside capital as the years progress.

Incidently another country with strong commercial ties with China was Germany - when the Tripartite Pact was signed most of these ties were lost, along with it any German leverage on Japanese behaviour in China.