Alternative WW2 scenario: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor one yea

[RF]

Japan signs the Axis Tripartite Pact in September 1940.

Then suppose the IJN attacks Pearl Harbor in December 1940. Germany declares war on the US. The same scenario as in the real WW2 follows except that Germany is at peace with the USSR and Hitler is persuaded to postpone Operation Barbarossa until the USA is dealt with.

Now if Rommel isent to Libya in January 1941 but this time with four or five German panzer and motorised divisions, with full Luftwaffe blitz on Malta followed by airborne invasion, the Germans could go on to seize Suez and Palestine while the Italians still hold their colonies in East Africa. The latter are then available for reinforcement and use by both Germany and Japan.

Will there be eventual Axis victory - or ultimately the same total defeat?

[marcelo_malara]

Well, entering war with Russia was Hitler´s biggest mistake. My thikings are:

1- Without an Eastern Front, the Allies surely couldn´t have landed in Europe.
2-If Malta was neutralized, and the Afrika Korps properly reinforced, Egypt would have fallen.
3-I don´t believe England would have been defeated.
4-The US would have dealed with Japan, eventually defeating her.

That would leave Europe divided between Germany, Italy and Russia, with the UK the only Allied country still free. Eventually the atomic bomb woul have been developed.

[lwd]

Well the PH raid isn't going to be as successful since the Shokakus aren't available until 41. Indeed the Kibo Butai didn't exist until April of 41. On the otherhand the US defences wouldn't be as strong but the fighters wouldn't all be clumped up on the runways either. I'm not sure any CVs are based at PH at that point. This has implications for the Japanese advance vs the Dutch and British as well. US subs may actually be in better shape as the Mk 14 torpedo was still in short supply at the start of the war historically. The older Mk 10 doesn't seam to have had some of the problems that the Mk 14 did.

Overall the US is a lot less prepared but should come up to speed faster. The US should start taking lessons learned faster as well. The Battle of the Atlantic is going to be more of a problem for the Germans. Indeed they end up haveing fewer uboats and bad torpedos during the time shipping on the US east coast is most vulnerable. Looks to me like Germany is in a worse postion early in 41 with this alternative. The question then becomes how can the Germans bring their real strength to bear?

[Bgile]

One question I have is when does Stalin invade Germany? I believe it was only a matter of time, but historically Hitler beat him to the punch. Either way the Russians win, but if they attack first they might be better off. Not sure about that, but it's one point of view. One thing missing is the overwhelming popular support for the war when the Germans invaded instead.

[Bgile]

Historically the Japanese accomplished a lot militarily without having to deal with the US. If they attack the US sooner, I think it makes it harder for them to accomplish what they did during 1941. I think its better for the Japanese not to have the US involved and they only attacked when it looked like war was inevitable and they thought they were picking the best way for it to begin. Of course, the US is less well prepared than historically. When was the first of the Essex class laid down? Maybe the Japanese have another year to deal with USN aviation assets.

[RF]

Looking at the responses so far, the view seems to be that an Allied (or rather a US) victory is more certain in the Pacific, while Germany is more secure as a land power in Europe, unless the Soviets attack.

I had discounted the possibility of Soviet invasion of Germany in 1941 on the grounds that following the purges in the Soviet Army they would not be ready to attack before 1942. By then the Mediterranean strategy would leave Germany in a position where, if Sea Lion is ruled out because of US ground forces in Britain plus Allied air strength, the Heer would be able to defeat a Soviet invasion. But that is another topic.