Japan's chances of winning in WW2 - another perspective

[RF]

Quite a few threads on this forum over the years have posed ''what if'' scenario's with regards to Japan being on the winning side in WW2, as part of Axis victory.

The verdict on all these threads so far was that Japan was doomed from the very start, unlike Germany Japan had no means of winning.

However one scenario has so far not been posed, and I think it is an interesting one.

What if Japan wasn't involved in fighting a war in China at the time Pearl Harbor was attacked?

If we rerun history as it was up to that day but without the 1937 Japanese invasion of China, how would the strategic position improve for Japan? Given that the Japanese invasion of French Indo-China and the obvious threat it posed to Malaya, Philippines and the Dutch East indies was the prime mover in the US Pacific Fleet being moved from California to PH, it would seem that most of the Japanese land and air forces deployed in China would now be available for deployment in the Pacific and the eastern Indian Ocean/Burma with the same degree of opposition to oppose them in early 1942.

Before posting my views on the possible and likely outcomes I will let others post theirs.

[aurora]

RF I cannot argue that if Japan were not involved in their war with China; that that would have shifted to balance of power somewhat.To have stuck with the Co Prosperity Plan for SE ASIA and not attacked PH-this may well have produced a different outcome- particularly taking into account America's Isolationist policy in 1940/41; but that is as far as I would care to speculate.

aurora

[paul.mercer]

Gentlemen,
I think that once the US with its almost unlimited resources got going the result would still have been the inevitable defeat of Japan, although it may have taken a little longer.

[aurora]

Gentlemen,
I think that once the US with its almost unlimited resources got going the result would still have been the inevitable defeat of Japan, although it may have taken a little longer.

Of course the above poses a question-if America maintained it's Isolationist Policy and the Japanese were not interested in taking the US on in a war;but confined themselves to controlling SE ASIA-would the Americans intervene??? Once it is admitted as in the above; the outcome would be as stated -inevitable!However what if America were not willing to get involved in a Far East conflict-what then???

aurora

[alecsandros]

Gentlemen,
I think that once the US with its almost unlimited resources got going the result would still have been the inevitable defeat of Japan, although it may have taken a little longer.

Of course the above poses a question-if America maintained it's Isolationist Policy and the Japanese were not interested in taking the US on in a war;but confined themselves to controlling SE ASIA-would the Americans intervene??? Once it is admitted as in the above; the outcome would be as stated -inevitable!However what if America were not willing to get involved in a Far East conflict-what then???

aurora

But what if Japan would attack the USSR in 1941, and block reinforcements to be sent to Moscow and Stalingrad ?

Even without victory, simply bogging down 50 divisions on the eastern front would spell doom for the Red Army.

Assuming the Germans would take Moscow and the rest of the area west of the Urals, USSR would be out of the war... And then... would the USA continue to fight ?
I doubt it.

[Dave Saxton]

If the Japanese are not bogged down in China this would imply a unified Japanese command and a unified set of war goals. Historically, the Japanese Army was interesting in prosecuting the war in China and was not on board with the Japanese Navy. Throughout the war in the Pacific the Japanese high command lacked cohesion of purpose. If a unified command and a stronger Army could have prevailed in the Solomons, then this would put the Japanese in a strong bargaining position to end the war leaving the co-prosperity sphere intact. They could say: "look its going to take an enourmous sacrifice of blood and treasure to defeat us now, and we will leave Aus. and New Zealand alone if you come to terms."

The issue then becomes America's will to fight. Perhaps if there had been no Pearl Harbor and thus anti-war sentiment remains strong in the US, FDR will be forced to agree to Japanese terms. A blossoming of anti-war sentiment in the face of war set backs and high numbers of KIA was something the USN worried about. For example, the enormity of the losses in the Solomons, and the Battle of Savo Island in particular, was withheld from the American people for months for precisely that reason.

[aurora]

The goal of Japan’s Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere was to

A. control South-East Asia jointly with China.
B. make South-East Asian countries the economic equals of Japan.
C. use Asia as a source of raw materials and a market for manufactured goods.
D. create an Asian free trade area to rival the European Economic Community.

IF this Plan had worked-there would have been no need to go to war with America; but the the Hawks in power wished to flex their muscles; and inevitably were destroyed

aurora