If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

From the birth of the Dreadnought to the period immediately after the end of World War I.
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Kyler
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If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by Kyler »

It is a constant debate among dreadnought enthusiasts, if Germany had a closer numerical superiority in battleships, cruisers, and other types at the beginning of the war, could they have the won over the Royal Navy?

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Karl Heidenreich
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Re: If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by Karl Heidenreich »

According to Campbell the Germans didn´t need a numerical parity but just to have judged better their oportunities. Until Jutland the Germans had a technological superiority over the Britons and... they never knew that. But early in the war, by 1914, the numbers were far better than by 1916. Let´s see:

1. By the Scarborough Raid, December 16th, 1914 the Germans had 4 BC vs Royal Navy´s 4 BC and 14 BB vs 22.

But the German ships were clearly superior

2. By Jutland, May 31st, 1916, the Germans had 5 BC vs 9 BC and 16 BB vs 28 BB (and 6 BB were 15").

So, it seems that a fleet action in 1914 or early 1915, with technological German superiority, would have been more favorable than the Jutland actions.

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Re: If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by dougieo »

A more important question is would they have tried?
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Re: If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by Karl Heidenreich »

dougieo:
A more important question is would they have tried?
The first two HSF commanders, Ingenohl and Pohl would certainly not. I think that Sheer or Hipper would have give it a try. The irony is that, in the timing frame, it were the first two those in position to achieve because the last two came too late.

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Re: If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by tommy303 »

I agree with Karl. The missed opportunities came in 1914-15. By 1916 when Scheer became fleet commander, the situation had been changing steadily in favor of the Grand Fleet. Dogger Bank was a missed opportunity as von Ingenohl was at sea with a considerable force to support Hipper but ordered a retreat when he thought that the Grand Fleet was out in strength. Earlier, von Ingenohl and put forth plans for the intended Entscheidungsschlacht or decisive fleet action, but had not been supported by the German Admiralty. This led instead to plans for small raids to provoke the British into retaliation so that isolated enemy forces could be ambushed and annihilated at little risk to the HSF.

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Re: If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by Zaku II »

tommy303 wrote:...Dogger Bank was a missed opportunity as von Ingenohl was at sea with a considerable force to support Hipper but ordered a retreat when he thought that the Grand Fleet was out in strength. Earlier, von Ingenohl and put forth plans for the intended Entscheidungsschlacht or decisive fleet action, but had not been supported by the German Admiralty. This led instead to plans for small raids to provoke the British into retaliation so that isolated enemy forces could be ambushed and annihilated at little risk to the HSF.
You are misteken Dogger Bank with the Scarborough Raid. In Dogger Bank Hipper was alone (even without von dern Tann), in the Scarborogh Raid the High Sea Fleet almost clash with a detached Squadron from the Grand Fleet (Battle Cruiser Force + 2nd Battle Squadron) but Ingenhol paniked and flee before encounter the enemy fleet.

And interesting What If is Dogger Bank with Ingenhol's support, it coul be the death of Lion (death in the water as historical) if Hipper turn around to support the damaged Blücher (probably it woul be lost anyway) and later flee with the arrival of Grand Fleet.
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Re: If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by tommy303 »

You are right about Scarborough, however again at Dogger Bank, von Ingenohl refused to support Hipper because a number of heavy units of the HSF were undergoing repairs and overhauls. So once more, an opportunity was missed. In February, after the battle, Hipper confronted von Ingenohl and told him the captains of the battle cruisers squadron no longer had faith in von Ingenohl's leadership of the fleet, and shortly thereafter he was replaced by von Pohl.

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Re: If Numerical Parity Had Been Closer Would Have Germany Won?

Post by RF »

Kyler wrote:It is a constant debate among dreadnought enthusiasts, if Germany had a closer numerical superiority in battleships, cruisers, and other types at the beginning of the war, could they have the won over the Royal Navy?

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Given the worldwide commiments the British had the German superiority would have been exaggerated. However the main problem for the Germans is logistical, the short range of their coal fired ships. The Germans would need to engage as a concentrated force, the British would try to split them up and sink the HSF piecemeal.
Incidently in a scenario where the Germans did have close to parity the Meditteranean becomes critical for the British - if the Italians stayed allied to Austria-Hungary their combined naval strength would be a major threat to Malta and the overall British position. The other consideration then remaining is of how much support the British Fleet gets from the French Fleet......
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