Hypothetical: The British detect Bismarck with a ship-borne Walrus at 0900 on 25 May 1941.

[wadinga]

Hi Michael L

I think Court Martial(s) would be the subject of a separate Post - if it hasn't already been done.

Have you searched and read by far the longest ever thread here? Yes it's been done. Done to Death.

I think if Tovey had considered "run out of fuel" to be an actual binding order, and had subsequently somehow survived being towed home hundreds of miles at 5 knots or less in storm conditions in his blacked-out flagship through a massive concentration of Luftwaffe bombers and bloodthirsty U-boats, he would have relished the opportunity to fully express himself in suitably salty terms in any Court Martial.

According to Duncan's map, PoW could easily have turned east if alerted by KGV that a battle was imminent, as could Wake-Walker, saving several hours of wasted endurance heading SW, so shouldn't these ships be included in this this hypothetical? Sure, she was low on fuel, too but only headed NE because Bismarck might have doubled back north. (In another place we have discussed why Treaty-Compliant KGVs had less endurance than Treaty-Flouting Bismarcks).

All the best

wadinga

[Michael L]

Hi wadinga.

After I did my post, I checked and found the lengthy - done to death - Court Martial discussion subject.

I deliberately set the time as 0900, a good six hours after contact was lost. That way the PoW and two 8inch Cruisers were off searching to the SW and two hours away.

Of course Tovey could have waited to consolidate his forces, but by that time Repulse would have had to depart. Nonetheless, it is another hypothetical that could be explored. For now I would welcome your input to the KGV and Repulse only encounter battle hypothetical scenario as detailed, if you are tempted.

Cheers, Michael L.

[wadinga]

Hi Michael L,

I'm afraid I don't see it your way, but then we don't have to agree, do we? Loading the hypothesis by only allowing the tinclad Repulse and KGV with her hidden armament issues to engage Bismarck is giving Lütjens too much of a chance.

Looking at Duncan's map PoW is actually closer to Bismarck's 0800 position than KGV and Repulse is so why not a three to one pile-on? The latter have an advantage in being ahead of Bismarck's beam, whilst PoW is on her quarter but then Bismarck is not going flat out. You have a point that W-W is too far to the west, and I know enthusiasts like to dream of Lütjens and Bismarck scoring a second stunning victory, but it's far more likely he would have caught between two fires and pounded to death. Repulse does not detach until some time after 1000 so 0900 and headed back toward the UK is a better option for her.

It would help if we had a speculative time for such an engagement so we could figure out who the players might be.

All the best

wadinga

[Michael L]

Hello wadinga.

I have looked at the Map in detail and see the points you are making. I have identified the source of the Map, The Pursuit: The Chase and Sinking of the Bismarck, Ludovic Kennedy, and am working on adapting it to provide a speculative time (circa 0900 TBC) and ship locations for this hypothetical engagement.

In the meantime please consider the following.

At 1000 hours [25 May] in approximate position 54N, 36W REPULSE, who was short of fuel, detached for Conception Bay, Newfoundland. Because of shortage of fuel REPULSE could only steam at 8 to 10 knots.

https://www.naval-history.net/xGM-Chron ... epulse.htm

Admiral Tovey’s Despatch/Report shows that on 25 May 1941, at 0800, KGV and Repulse were at 54° 00'N., 35° 02' W.
Approx. 799NM from Conception Bay, Canada (47.50°N, 52.99°W), and approx. 891NM from Waterville, Ballinskelligs Bay, Southeast Eire (51.82°N, 10.17°W).

The distance between where HMS Repulse was eventually detached (approx. 54.00° 00'N, 36.00°W) and Conception Bay, Canada (47.50°N, 52.99° W) where it refuelled is approx. 751MN.
The distance between where HMS Repulse was eventually detached (approx. 54.00° 00'N, 36.00°W) and Ballinskelligs Bay, Southwest Eire, (51.82°N, 10.17°W) is approx. 939NM.

In going West, HMS Repulse entered the Pan-American Security Zone, declared by the USA in October 1939, which had been extended to the meridian 26° West on 18 April 1941. At this time few German U-Boats operated in this Zone. Consequently, it was relatively safe for HMS Repulse to steam at 8 to 10 knots.

I respectfully submit that HMS Repulse would not have gone east and returned to the UK or Eire to refuel. It would have been extremely risky travelling at such a slow speed, not zigzagging, through an Ocean in which it was known that U-Boats were operating in. Dare I say, a suicide mission.
At best HMS Repulse might have gone to Iceland with the distance between its detached position (approx. 54.00° 00'N, 36.00°W) and Reykjavík, Iceland (64.13°N, 21.83°W), being approx. 744NM. But, again, travelling at a slow speed, and at greater risk than going to Conception Bay, Canada.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/other/la ... e-distance

Consequently, I conclude that the ‘tinclad Repulse’ can be ruled out of participating in this hypothetical encounter battle. However, I will place it on the Map in the event it does participate in the hypothetical encounter battle and subsequently gets towed back to port.

Kind regards, Michael L.

[dunmunro]

Hello wadinga.

I have looked at the Map in detail and see the points you are making. I have identified the source of the Map, The Pursuit: The Chase and Sinking of the Bismarck, Ludovic Kennedy, and am working on adapting it to provide a speculative time (circa 0900 TBC) and ship locations for this hypothetical engagement.

The map is actually from the RN Historical Section:


Battle Summary Number 5: Chase and Sinking of German Battleship Bismarck, 23-27 May 1941

[dunmunro]

Hello wadinga.

I have looked at the Map in detail and see the points you are making. I have identified the source of the Map, The Pursuit: The Chase and Sinking of the Bismarck, Ludovic Kennedy, and am working on adapting it to provide a speculative time (circa 0900 TBC) and ship locations for this hypothetical engagement.

The map is actually from the RN Historical Section:


Battle Summary Number 5: Chase and Sinking of German Battleship Bismarck, 23-27 May 1941

BTW It took Repulse about 60 hours to arrive at Conception Bay, so her average speed was about 12.5 knots, assuming no zig zag course.

[Michael L]

Hello wadinga.

My bad. You are correct. Battle Summary Number 5: Chase and Sinking of German Battleship Bismarck, 23-27 May 1941.
That must be what Sir Ludovic Kennedy used as the basis for his Maps. As the RN Historical Section Map has no scale to it, I will use the Kennedy Map.

Kind regards, Michael L.

[Michael L]

25th – At 1000 hours in approximate position 54N, 36W REPULSE, who was short of fuel, detached for Conception Bay, Newfoundland. Because of shortage of fuel REPULSE could only steam at 8 to 10 knots.
27th – At 2200 hours arrived at Conception Bay, Newfoundland and commenced refuelling.

https://www.naval-history.net/xGM-Chron ... epulse.htm

The average speed calculation of 12.5 knots is correct: 751NM ÷ 60hrs = 12.516 Knots.
This is based on the assumption that HMS Repulse sailed directly to Conception Bay, assuming no zigzagging.
IIRC HMS Repulse was tasked to ‘search in that direction en route’ (Ludovic, p. 119). Consequently, it may have not taken a direct course.
IMHO, if HMS Repulse had taken a direct course, it would likely have sailed at a higher speed while outside the Pan-American Security Zone (54°N, 36°W to 51.00°N, 26° W = approx. 400NM – at 20-24knots= approx. 20hrs), and would at times likely have zigzagged (IMHO). And then slowed down to the '8 to 10 knots that it could only steam at' (approx. 350NM, approx. 40hrs) to arrive at Conception Bay, when it was safely inside the Pan-American Security Zone.

In this respect, average speed calculations, while useful, can be misleading in understanding the broader scope of events.

Of course, an examination HMS Repulse’s War Diary/Ship’s Log would show what it’s speeds were and if it did, or did not, zigzag.

[paul.mercer]

Hi Michael,
All this is becoming a bit confusing, are we actually discussing whether or not Tovey would have engaged Bismarck with KGV & Repulse and hope to slow her up enough for other heavy ships to come up and if so what the outcome might have been?
If this is the case, I think that without doubt, Tovey would engage, he would have had little choice in the matter.

[Michael L]

Hello Paul,
Agreed. I think I allowed myself to be 'squirreled'.
If I go down the rabbit hole of identifying specific times then a multitude of options emerge.
- KGV and Repulse v Bismarck.
- KGV, PoW, and Norfolk v Bismarck.
- Victorious Swordfish attack followed by KGV, Norfolk and Suffolk v Bismarck.
- etc.
The original point to this hypothetical was that if Tovey had launched a Walrus, as he with hindsight alluded to, then a mid-Atlantic encounter battle would likely have ensued. Bismarck would still have been sunk. The only unknown being what degree of damage was sustained by the RN ships.
Consequently, I won’t be uploading a Map with a speculative time and ship locations for this hypothetical toe-to-toe engagement, as I have previously indicated. I think this Post has been milked for all it is worth. Time to move on.
Thanks to all that contributed to this hypothetical.
Kind regards, Michael.

[wadinga]

Hi Michael L,

I do not think you have been either "squirreled" or "rabbited" certainly not intentionally, whatever those terms mean. What has come out of your excellent calculation is that Repulse cannot be at such a showdown, and even PoW may be too far astern to catch up. KGV will also take a long time to close on Bismarck, even reacting immediately.

What is of most interest is that Rodney, with new information on Bismarck's position, course and speed, can put herself directly athwart Lutjens' desired route home. Like a slow moving defender matching Ronaldo sweeping majestically toward him, Dalrymple-Hamilton has the advantage of inner lines to force contact. The most likely event is a one on one, Rodney crossing the Germans' T, 9 heavy guns against 4, possibly with destroyer assistance, before the C-in-C arrives at the party at some stage.

Despite being given contradictory orders by Pound and Phillips, D-H is in a perfect position, only missed an interception in real life because of lack of up to date information, and the big question is whether his gunnery will be better against a steadily advancing Bismarck on the 25th than firing on a zig-zagging wounded Bismarck that entered his sights in reality.

My feeling is that Bismarck may get some hits in but Rodney will knock her about enough and delay her enough so that a concentration of forces can be achieved.

All the best

wadinga

[Michael L]

Hello wadinga,

I have also pondered on the 'what if Bismarck came across Rodney'?

IIRC, Rodney could barely make 22 knots.

At approximately 1515 hours the CinC in KING GEORGE V caught up with RODNEY, TARTAR and MASHONA. The CinC signalled Dalrymple-Hamilton, what is your maximum speed; Dalrymple-Hamilton replied, 22 knots. This suited the CinC as he wanted to reduce speed to conserve KING GEORGE V fuel which was causing concern. So KING GEORGE V and destroyers TARTAR and MASHONA set off at 22 knots. However despite the best endeavours’ of her engine room staff, RODNEY started to fall behind.
At 1815 hours Dalrymple-Hamilton was forced to signal the CinC; I am afraid that your 22 knots is a bit faster than ours.

https://www.naval-history.net/xGM-Chron ... Rodney.htm

I don’t think that Bismarck would have casually steered a direct course at Rodney – 9 x 16inch v 4 x 15inch as you put it.
Bismarck had shown that it could still put on a burst of speed. I believe in this hypothetical, Bismarck would have turned broadside-on and steered the opposite direction to Rodney. There would have been an exchange of broadsides, but as we have seen Rodney was not quick to get Bismarck’s range. Because of their diverging courses, at some point Rodney would have to turn and do a 180. Giving time for Bismarck to get around Rodney and outdistance it as it got back onto a course for France.

My feeling is that the encounter battle would not playout the way you have described.

It would be the tactics of the three destroyers (Somali, Tartar and Mashona) that is of interest. Although Bismarck and Rodney might be slugging it out at range, Bismarck’s secondary battery would try and deal with the destroyers. I don't think the destroyers could have got easy torpedo shots away at Bismarck, especially by day. Sure, they would have been a distraction and Bismarck would have had to change course to evade any torpedoes launched at it. But I don't feel they could have been as dangerous as Vain's destroyers were at night.

I think that in this hypothetical, Rodney plus three destroyers crossing Bismarck, it still comes down to slowing Bismarck down. IMHO Bismarck could have got past Rodney, but only to find herself shadowed by the three destroyers.

We then come back to a scenario of Vain and his five destroyers and Ark Royal and her Swordfish being the key to slowing Bismarck down so that KGV, Rodney, Dorsetshire and Norfolk can catch up.

Kind regards, Michael L.

[Michael L]

With respect to the two ships, Rodney and Bismarck exchanging broadsides, the statistics make for interesting reading.
Wikipedia.
Rodney. 9 x 16inch Mk I naval gun.
Rate of fire: 1.5 rounds per minute. Muzzle velocity: 2,586 ft/s (788 m/s). Shell weight: 2,048 pounds (929 kg).
Bismarck. 8 x 15inch SK C/34 naval gun.
Rate of fire: 2.5 rounds per minute. Muzzle velocity: 2,700 ft/s (820 m/s). Shell weight: 1,800 lb pounds (800 kg).

On 25 May, Bismarck’s crew would not have been as fatigued as they were in the final battle (after a nigh of being harassed by Vain’s destroyers). Indeed, they would have been heartened by their battle result against the Hood and PoW.

In a two minute period Bismarck could have fired 5 salvoes (40 shells) to Rodney’s 3 salvoes (27 shells).
In a five minute period Bismarck could have fired 12 salvoes (96 shells) to Rodney’s 7 salvoes (63 shells) – rounded down.

Given their respective shooting records - Bismarck in the Denmark Strait and Rodney in the final battle - and Bismarck’s ability to draw upon the fall-of-shot data from more salvoes, I respectfully submit that Bismarck would likely have found Rodney’s range quicker than Rodney would have found Bismarck’s range.

[dunmunro]

With respect to the two ships, Rodney and Bismarck exchanging broadsides, the statistics make for interesting reading.
Wikipedia.
Rodney. 9 x 16inch Mk I naval gun.
Rate of fire: 1.5 rounds per minute. Muzzle velocity: 2,586 ft/s (788 m/s). Shell weight: 2,048 pounds (929 kg).
Bismarck. 8 x 15inch SK C/34 naval gun.
Rate of fire: 2.5 rounds per minute. Muzzle velocity: 2,700 ft/s (820 m/s). Shell weight: 1,800 lb pounds (800 kg).

On 25 May, Bismarck’s crew would not have been as fatigued as they were in the final battle (after a nigh of being harassed by Vain’s destroyers). Indeed, they would have been heartened by their battle result against the Hood and PoW.

In a two minute period Bismarck could have fired 5 salvoes (40 shells) to Rodney’s 3 salvoes (27 shells).
In a five minute period Bismarck could have fired 12 salvoes (96 shells) to Rodney’s 7 salvoes (63 shells) – rounded down.

Given their respective shooting records - Bismarck in the Denmark Strait and Rodney in the final battle - and Bismarck’s ability to draw upon the fall-of-shot data from more salvoes, I respectfully submit that Bismarck would likely have found Rodney’s range quicker than Rodney would have found Bismarck’s range.

Salvo rates are limited due to ToF and the need to spot the fall of shot. Bismarck fired far fewer rounds at DS than her RoF would have allowed.

Bismarck's FC radar would have given her a big advantage though.

[wadinga]

Hello Michael L,

You make some very valid points,but.......

Bismarck would have turned broadside-on and steered the opposite direction to Rodney

Good, just when Lutjens needs to make the speediest progress towards safety, he is forced to turn at right angles to his desired course. This allows Tovey, Somerville etc to get closer. He steers the "opposite direction", well, Dalrymple-Hamilton has the option to turn towards the enemy to match his course whilst keeping six guns bearing.

Giving time for Bismarck to get around Rodney and outdistance it

Sailing round half a circumference at normal combat ranges is a large diversion, Rodney only has move along a radius, to "head her off at the pass". That hole in the bow is still leaking, Bismarck's maximum sustained speed is still an unknown but the higher the speed the higher the likelihood of more flooding. Every minute wasted by Lutjens is a minute closer to Armageddon.

Bismarck would have had to change course to evade any torpedoes launched at it

Such a course would be very unlikely to be towards safety, so more time wasted.

but as we have seen Rodney was not quick to get Bismarck’s range

Circumstances were completely different so performance in that other fight is no indicator of what might happen here. Conversely it must be said Bismarck hit nothing at all in that other fight.

On 25 May, Bismarck’s crew would not have been as fatigued .....Indeed, they would have been heartened

Well gloomy Gunther had already given them his death or glory speech but they were running towards the fleshpots of Occupied France. so that might have cheered them up a bit, sailors being what they are.

From Duncan:

Bismarck's FC radar would have given her a big advantage though.

Maybe, but then the forward radars at least had broken down. Vian suspected radar-directed fire during the his attack but its not certain.

PS this is not rabbiting or whatever, but Admiral of the Fleet Sir Philip Louis Vian, GCB, KBE, DSO & Two Bars was one of the RN's most celebrated officers in World War II.

Thank you for the lively dialogue and excellent observations you are bringing to the Forum, I hope you are enjoying it as much as I am.

All the best

wadinga