Japan would have to be defeated in major battle somewhere. Wherever that battle happens it would be a major significant event.
Or it could have been defeated in a battle of attrition not requiring a "major" battle such as the Solomon's campaign. Lose a ship here and there, some planes here and there and you will be beat by the production capacity of the US, and the other thing that will cause Japan to lose is the inability to replace pilots at any decent rate.
The Marianas Turkey Shoot was lost in the Solomon's campaign. The Solomon's campaign chewed up Japan's airpower and pilots, leading the the horrid performance in the Marianas.
But just look at aircraft carrier production. Let's say Japan had a significant win at Midway, reversing the fortunes of that battle. Japan loses 1 carrier to the US losing all 3 of it's carriers. By Jan 1944 we have 5 Essex class carriers comissioned, 9 Independence class CVL's, Plus we probably bring over the Ranger and Saratoga.
Even the losses of the pilots was not as bad as one would think. Per Parshall and Tully, only 25% of the 4 Carriers aircrews perished at Midway. Heavy losses yes, but not really any heavier than at Coral Sea or Santa Cruz. I think Santa Cruz even caused more losses for the aircrews. Losing 40% of the mechanics and technicians was probably just as heavy of a blow given the fact that Japan in general was less industrialized and far less of their population had exposure to operation and repair of heavy machinery.
So the Pacific war was an eventuality, making Midway while important not a huge issue in the overall scheme of things. A Japanese victory would have only delayed things maybe 6 months to a year.
On the contrary it had a major impact on the result of the First World War. The British blockade on Germany was confirmed and reinforced, with the resulting food and strategic raw material shortages that pushed Germany into defeat and near revolution. Also the High Seas Fleet confirmed that strategically it was now unable to adequately challenge British supremacy in its own back yard and win.
My thought here - before Jutland, Germany was embargoed and their fleet was largely holed up other than some minor actions. After an indecisive battle, GErmany was embargoed and their fleet holed up. It really did not change anything. Nor did it result in any major changes as to how it was thought naval wars would be fought. Perhaps some better Fire Control resulted, or more precisely better implementation of existing fire control technology, and a little more attention paid to damage control for things such as magazine flash fires, but that's really about it. I'd say Tsushima from this time period was more important, curtailed Russian Naval Power and set up Japan as a player for power in the World's Navies.