What is Putin up to?

[RF]

Byron,

Listen in to GB News - it is streamed on the You Tube - and you will see that the presenters I name in the second paragraph of my previous post are expressing exactly the same comments on the Covid debacle as you are.
As I say we have a mono-narrative that only allows one viewpoint, in the UK I cannot view the RT channel because the UK Government is so scared of the propaganda therein it has to be airbrushed off air. Whether I want to view RT today should be my choice, my freedom, not the diktat of a Government which in that respect is no different than the Putin regime in cancelling alternative viewpoints. For the record I have seen RT - and found that it was not slavishly following the FSB line but actually broadcasting the condemnations of the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations by countries such as Brazil, Gabon, Ghana, Norway etc and these UN delegations were not exactly holding back in that criticism. The presenters are British not Russian and again not parroting the FSB line.

And don't forget that one major beneficiary of the Russian invasion is Boris Johnson - his job is now safe as you don't change Prime Ministers in a crisis like this, he will have a good war, safely in the House of Commons doing a Churchill impression whilst knowing full well that there is no chance of anybody really opposing the Russian Army other than the Ukrainians - I suspect that behind the scenes the telephone link between Washington and Moscow has been busy, agreeing the lines of conflict that allows Russia to invade without blitzing the civil population into annihilation (the clue here are the relatively low civilian casualties, in the hundreds rather than the tens of thousands of dead that carpet and vacuum bombing would quickly produce).
Going forward the only force that now matters is the Ukrainian Army and Air Force - if they can keep their forces in play in strength they will win through and Putin will at some point be ousted or cancelled. But remember the Winter War of 1939/40 when the Finns were overcome by weight of numbers - Russia has a bigger population but not to the extent of 1940 over Finland. The US military and intelligence - if they are doing their jobs - will be watching the Russian forces in combat very closely, the Russians will know this and a long conflict is not in Russia's interest.

[RF]

Not to mention that, IIUC, official UK data has now reported that vaccinated individuals presently account for 9 of 10 UK Covid cases. If accurate, how curious ..........

B

98% of the UK population is vaccinated, so the one in ten of unvaccinated Covid cases comes from a miniscule residual population.

[Byron Angel]

Hi RF,
RT has effectively been erased here in the States as well; it was recently dropped by its digital US carrier.
"Nihil est planum." - Nothing is on the level in the realm of the fourth estate.

Welcome to the land of the mushrooms.

B

[paul.mercer]

Hi RF,
i think you are right about Boris saving his job as PM, its rather reminiscent of the Falklands saving Margaret Thatcher!
I agree that TV reports can be 'doctored' to suit the nation reporting on a particular subject, but some of the pictures seen on the BBC appear to show that the Russian artillery are targeting civilian towns and the films often show explosions in the background where a report is taking place which
makes me wonder about the quality of the average Russian trooper when it comes to targeting an area.
I also think that NATO are right in avoiding a making 'no fly' zone over Ukraine as it doesn't take much to start off a conflict. I just hope that the Russian generals either get rid of Putin or at least stop from from going into a NATO country, he seems to be determined to claim back all the territory Russia gained after WW2 - if he does then its probably going to end up in WW3 as I think that NATO will be forced to retaliate.
If that happens and nukes start flying about I'm afraid it will be a case of 'put your head between your legs and kiss your a.... goodbye!

[Byron Angel]

Hi Paul,
IMO, the video being aired is every bit as suspect as the reportage. We have absolutely no means of determining the veracity of the video. Why should we accept the descriptive claims of a monopolized corrupt media that we already know lies to us on a daily basis?

Have you heard of “Tin Eye” image search s/ware?

Byron

[wadinga]

Hello All,

Phew! What a relief - it's not really happening at all, and it's just a invented collusion between the rival media organizations.

However I too think RT should be allowed to transmit, after all everybody got to have a good laugh in WWII at Lord Haw-Haw! BTW It's now punishable by prison sentence not to tow the Kremlin line. Hope none of those diligent GB News correspondents aren't in Moscow!

Remember it was the Russians who dug up the Katyn dead and planted antiqued, dated documents on the corpses to suggest it was the Germans who massacred them after Barbarossa rather than their own NKVD in 1940!

Irrelevant as it is to the subject of this thread:

In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 51,281 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); 640 occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, which includes people who had been infected before they were vaccinated.

UK Govt statistics.

Nobody has ever claimed vaccination is/was 100% effective, but it's obviously better than protecting your vulnerable airways by sticking your head up your............

All the best

wadinga

[paul.mercer]

Hi Byron,
Much as I have the greatest respect for your opinions, I do feel that something very bad is happening in Ukraine, I don't think all the images produced on TV could be made up for the western world to see and the indiscriminate shelling of towns makes one wonder about the discipline of the Russian forces.
The question is now, how long can the west stand by and watch, I fully appreciate their points about putting troops and weaponry into Ukraine might start another European war,, but how far does one let Putin go? Should NATO stand up to Putin and intervene and stop any further advance and take a chance that those surrounding Putin would keep his finger off the Nuke button, after all they too must be fully aware that once that starts there can be no winners? If NATO doesn't intervene over Ukraine I wonder if they would if Putin invades a NATO country or are they all bluff which Putin would be happy to call and dare them to take action?
Its a tricky question.

[Byron Angel]

Hi Byron,
Much as I have the greatest respect for your opinions, I do feel that something very bad is happening in Ukraine, I don't think all the images produced on TV could be made up for the western world to see and the indiscriminate shelling of towns makes one wonder about the discipline of the Russian forces.
The question is now, how long can the west stand by and watch, I fully appreciate their points about putting troops and weaponry into Ukraine might start another European war,, but how far does one let Putin go? Should NATO stand up to Putin and intervene and stop any further advance and take a chance that those surrounding Putin would keep his finger off the Nuke button, after all they too must be fully aware that once that starts there can be no winners? If NATO doesn't intervene over Ukraine I wonder if they would if Putin invades a NATO country or are they all bluff which Putin would be happy to call and dare them to take action?
Its a tricky question.

Hi Paul,
Thanks for the compliment, but I am just a fellow on the street with an acute sense of cynicism and skepticism developed after following world events for most of his life.

How do you REALLY know the artillery fire you are seeing is Russian? My guess is that you accept as truthful the media commentary that accompanies the video clips because you do not accept the possibility that Ukrainians (or perhaps some 3rd party) would ever fire upon common civilians. It is a simple and therefore easily accepted/digested interpretation. However, do you remember the "Ukrainian Revolution" of 2014? Who was shooting and killing dozens of Ukrainian protestors in the main square of Kiev from the surrounding rooftops? As the great and wise American philosopher Yogi Berra said - "You don't know what you don't know."

I do not claim to know the full truth of what is happening in Ukraine, except to say that I trust NOTHING emanating from any organ of the mass media. What we are presently seeing and hearing is an orchestrated effort to mislead and mold public opinion. Please do not misunderstand me. Something very bad is indeed taking place in the Ukraine and, yes, people are suffering and dying. My opinion, however, is that the storyline being so breathlessly propagated by the global mass media on a 24/7 worldwide basis very likely bears no relation to the true underlying motives of the "intervention/incursion/invasion (pick the term of your preference), the true nature of ongoing events, or the true goals involved.

If you want to go deeper into this, I am happy to do so off-line via PM.


Rgds / B

[José M. Rico]

In the following twitter account you can find lots of photos of destroyed/damaged/captured vehicles planes and helicopters.
The Russians are having heavy casualties, there is no doubt about that.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

Many also wonder why the Russian Air Force has not appeared over the battlefield en masse.

[wadinga]

Hello Mr Rico,

Thankyou for restoring reality against the nonsense conspiracist theories that the war in Ukraine isn't actually happening.

Myself I detect a certain reticence to go "all-out" on the part of Russia. This mission is/has being misrepresented both to the troops on the ground and the populace at home as a "peace-keeping" mission. Narrow front thrusts intended to occupy strategic targets assume minimal resistance and little risk of flank attacks. A convoy that is not moving is not a convoy but a trapped force, only a tiny proportion of which can engage the enemy and the rest of which is merely consuming resources to no purpose.

The level of righteous Ukrainian resistance experienced means the the Russian soldiers have realised they are not liberating anyone, not fighting to protect their nation by being in someone else's country, and are up against those who are fighting for their homes and loved ones, and are thus much more motivated. Major widespread Russian air assaults would show their troops on the ground that the local fighting they are up against is actually much more general and thus further undermine their belief in the "mission". German troops in WWII swore a personal oath of allegiance to the Fuhrer, but have Russian squaddies the same love, honour and duty to Putin despite his pathetic attempts to bolster his own personality cult?

The short range and thus defensive weapons supplied to Ukraine by NATO members eg Stinger AA and NLAW anti-tank missiles are taking a heavy toll of Russian forces, and Putin won't be able to hide these severe losses in a pointless war, from his populace for ever. Time is not on his side. The anguished appeals for a no fly zone from Ukraine must sadly be resisted, since the first engagement would allow Putin to present this as a war against NATO which might bolster crumbling support at home.

Sadly the UN, which might earlier have investigated the accusations of genocide against Russian speakers in the separatist regions, is apparently helpless to do anything.

Putin is already in his bunker, his generals must already be plotting, all we need is somebody to put that briefcase next to his chair.

All the best

wadinga

[paul.mercer]

Hi Wadinga,
A most interesting post.
I wonder if we are see some similarities with WW2 where German troops disguised as Polish saboteurs gave Hitler the reason to invade Poland and, if I remember correctly Russia originally accused Ukraine of doing the same to in order to give it an excuse to invade. Also, I believe that after the initial attack on Russia the Germans got bogged down due to bad weather and supply logistics. Again after the attack on American forces in the 'Battle of the Bulge' the German tanks ran out of fuel and spare parts for their tanks rather similar in the way the convoy has been stuck outside Kyiev. Is history repeating itself?
On another track, re the possible future use of chemical and biological weapons by the Russians in Ukraine, am I right in thinking that the use of such weapons is not only banned in International law, but if used, would actually pose a great danger (even more so than radiation from tactical nuclear weapons) to the invading forces trying to occupy the areas they had used it on due to the difficulty of removing whatever substances that had been used which had coated all the land, buildings, walls, fences etc possibly for years to come?

[wadinga]

Hello Paul,

Your parallels with the past are most valid. There is much that is similar between Hitler's missions to "save" German speakers in Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1938 and 39 and Putin's invasion. A simmering war has been fought in the Donbass and associated region since 2014. Whilst the majority of Ukrainians seem to be happy to be independent of Russia, there are apparently strong separatist feelings in this area and Kremlin military assistance to fight off Ukrainian government forces seems to have been active for years. Short lived ceasefires have occurred but the Kiev government is unwilling to let this area break away and become Russia-aligned. Like many internecine fights there have been allegations of atrocities on both sides, some of which are surely true. A body reporting to the UN, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) of which the Soviets and hence Russia are signatories, have been monitoring this "bush war". I do not recall hearing anything of "genocide". but it is clear a Russian missile shot down a Malaysian airliner. Another good reason why crushing sanctions should have been applied earlier.

Putin is using this "Casus Belli" to justify his wholesale Ukraine invasion, but his own writings make it clear this is just a cover for his ambitions to recreate the sphere of control of the old Soviet Union, much as Hitler wanted the Third Reich to take back all that had been "stolen" from Imperial Germany by Versailles, plus a whole lot more of other peoples' countries as well. A wholesale Russian invasion of the Donbass region only, and the effective redrawing of the border might have been defensible fro some, but the Kremlin Plan is clearly much more far-reaching. Against Hitler, Czechoslovakia did not fight and was subsumed, Poland fought and was overwhelmed, with Kremlin co-operation. Britain and France declared war, but through the period of the Sitskrieg, their main hope was that economic sanctions, and particularly an attempt to strangle supplies of iron ore from Sweden would lead to the ousting of Hitler. Hence Winston's ill-fated but understandable mining of Norwegian waters in the early months of 1940.

However, today the world is globalised, and whilst many Russians may pine for the certainties of the planned economy, there must be huge numbers who have tasted the benefits of being part of the world economy and who have other sources of information other than the State's propaganda. Surely they must question the morality of attacking and killing their brothers and sisters in Ukraine and destroying the cities their fathers and grandfathers spent so much blood in wresting from the Nazis.

All praise to famous test pilot and Hero of the Soviet Union and Russia Alexander Garnaev who has resigned in disgust from his official and honorary roles over Putin's war against "brotherly Slavic peoples".

All the best

wadinga

[Byron Angel]

Gentlemen,

Dig deeper:
Kolomoisky - Burisma - Privat Bank - 2014 - Zelensky - Hunter Biden - Paul Pelosi - John Kerry’s stepson - Donbas ethnic cleansing - Azov Battalion (et al).

Or ..... feel free to rely upon the major media. Up to you.

B

[paul.mercer]

Gentlemen,
Forgive for re- posting this question and adding two more, the first is: On another track, re the possible future use of chemical and biological weapons by the Russians in Ukraine, am I right in thinking that the use of such weapons is not only banned in International law, but if used, would actually pose a great danger (even more so than radiation from tactical nuclear weapons) to the invading forces trying to occupy the areas they had used it on due to the difficulty of removing whatever substances that had been used which had coated all the land, buildings, walls, fences etc possibly for years to come?
The second is this, NATO have held back from imposing a no-fly zone for fear of starting a possible war with a nuclear armed country, but they have stated that should Russia invade any of the NATO affiliated countries around Ukraine it would take action. This makes me wonder if Putin will refrain from doing so because he too is afraid of engaging with nuclear armed countries or whether he would call NATO's bluff and bank on it backing down.
So, in your opinions would NATO (using nukes, chemical or biological weapons in retaliation if they were used against their troops) engage or is it all bull.... and bluff?
Finally, in your expert opinions, would Putin's senior Generals stop him from 'pressing the button'

[wadinga]

Hello Paul,

The more destruction Putin rains on Ukraine and its people, the weaker his justification in the eyes of his own people, civilian and military. This has been presented as a mission to save people and land from right wing "Nazi" extremists. Since in actuality he aims to reinstate the Soviet Union, acquiring contaminated real estate and the sullen survivors of an all-out onslaught, surely holds little value. He may hope to enmesh NATO in a conventional conflict short of the use of nuclear or biological weaponry, to bolster his identification of the NATO "threat". Interestingly both left and right wing extremists in Western Countries (probably at Kremlin suggestion) have latched onto the acceptance of former Iron Curtain states into the defensive Alliance as aggressive "expansion". Those who live in such new member countries have realized the only hope of survival having escaped Russia's "protection" is to gain somebody else's. In Britain political mischief makers highlight Russian oligarchs' financial contributions to the ruling Tory party, in the States they seek to undermine Biden in similar ways. They also seek to weaken Western resolve by citing to the second Iraq war as regime change without acknowledging Saddam's previous track record and potential for future mayhem.

In terms of bluff and counter bluff Putin probably has an advantage in managing his public's revulsion in seeing their "boys come home in a bag" compared to the West. The Western media has undermined resolve in conflicts in Vietnam, the Gulf and elsewhere. Putin already has a difficult "sell" for his propagandists in justifying his troops' and Ukrainian citizens' deaths, when it isn't happening in Mother Russia. Word of mouth, helped by the universal mobile phone may outflank his rigid control of the media.

Like Russia itself, in the upheaval following Ukraine's emergence from communist control, that country has produced oligarchs with dodgy financial deals with the West's wealthy and also extremist groups, which may indeed be Fascist in outlook. As observed, the dirty little war in the Donbas has dragged on for years, but for real information the reports from the OSCE supported by the UN provide actual data eg https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/f/3/487882.pdf on the scale of conflict and casualties. Nowhere are the allegations of genocide made by Russian propagandists supported. If Ukraine and its government is not whiter than white clean, surely neither it nor its populace deserve their current fate.

Even if Putin has a little red cap with "Make Russia Great Again" he doesn''t wear it for fear his fantasy statements, downright lies and threats of Armageddon will appear more foolish than they already are. His high stakes gamble in which he has expended Russian lives and treasure for questionable gains means that if he is deposed, he is unlikely to get to enjoy retirement in his palace on the Black Sea coast.

All the best

wadinga