What is Putin up to?

[RF]

The situation isn't going to sort itself out at all, the war goes on until a ceasefire is agreed.

Return to a normal situation ?? Since the onset of Covid, let alone the invasion of Ukraine, what is normal?

The situation has changed forever, it continues to change and it looks like Ukraine will become to Putin what Vietnam was to Lyndon Johnson, only it will be worse because Russia doesn't have the safety valve of free and fair elections. Age and health are not in Putin's favour, it looks as though Putin will either be overthrown from within or the Grim Reaper comes for him, then the next question is who replaces him and is he (the prospect of a woman or trans leader of Russia is practically non-existent so this is not a gender biased pronoun) going to be more tolerant about the idea of an independent Ukraine?

Here's a quiz question - who falls first, Basher al-Assad in Syria, or Putin in Russia?

[Byron Angel]

This war is all about destroying Russia and Russia knows it. It will only end when the Deep State: (a) runs out of Ukrainians, (b) runs out of our money, or (c) there is a "regime change" in the USA. Only if none of the above occurs, will a ceasefire go into effect shortly after the last nuclear missiles land.

B

[RF]

Looking medium term I would say that ''regime change'' is certainly probable in the US, but not in quite the direction Putin would want.

Perhaps maybe a cease fire then, rather like the ceasefire the Germans signed up to in November 1918, just so Russia can survive.

In the meantime do the Russians have the nerve to hit the nuclear button?

[Byron Angel]

We'll see.

Byron

[paul.mercer]

Gentlemen
It was reported on the news the other day that Ukraine wanted to join NATO, that would really put 'The cat among the pigeons'!
As for the so called 'referendum on the regions joining Russia' any referendum that produces results of over 90% (in one case 99%) has got to be a sham, if Putin really believes that Ukraine has always belonged to Russia, why have a referendum?

[Steve Crandell]

Gentlemen
It was reported on the news the other day that Ukraine wanted to join NATO, that would really put 'The cat among the pigeons'!
As for the so called 'referendum on the regions joining Russia' any referendum that produces results of over 90% (in one case 99%) has got to be a sham, if Putin really believes that Ukraine has always belonged to Russia, why have a referendum?

Can a country already at war join NATO? If so, would that require member nations to declare war on Russia? I can't imagine them doing that because they would be afraid of Putin and what he might do. There is a huge difference in decision making capacity of course, because Putin does pretty much what he simply decides to do, whereas the Western nations have to puzzle it out and vote.

[Byron Angel]

Don't kid yourselves, gentlemen. Ukraine under the Zelensky/Kolomoisky regime has been an under-the-table stalking horse member of NATO since 2014.

Byron

[Steve Crandell]

Don't kid yourselves, gentlemen. Ukraine under the Zelensky/Kolomoisky regime has been an under-the-table stalking horse member of NATO since 2014.

Byron

And this is all organized by the "Deep State" or the Illuminati, or some such? The great secret cabal which controls everything?

[paul.mercer]

Gentlemen,
Re the explosions which fractured the gas pipelines, do you think it was (A) an accident, possibly caused by some WW2 ordinance or seismic movement, (B) the Russians, (why)? or (C) as was suggested in one of the UK papers, the Americans?
Next Question! As the Ukrainians have apparently retaken a town supposedly now on Russian territory, what next, if Putin resorts to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons what will the West do, supply Ukraine with them as well?

[Dave Saxton]

Gentlemen,
Re the explosions which fractured the gas pipelines, do you think it was (A) an accident, possibly caused by some WW2 ordinance or seismic movement, (B) the Russians, (why)? or (C) as was suggested in one of the UK papers, the Americans?
Next Question! As the Ukrainians have apparently retaken a town supposedly now on Russian territory, what next, if Putin resorts to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons what will the West do, supply Ukraine with them as well?

A.) Three seperate explosions on two pipelines (both Nordstrean I and NS-2), each with a magnitude of a 2.3 earthquake, at precisely the right locations to disable them. What are the odds that it was accidental? About like biden legitimately winning an election. Everybody from the Danes, to the Swedes, to the Poles, to the Germans, are saying it was no accident.

B.) Why would the Russians blow up their own pipelines when they control the tap? However, it will further drive up the market prices and they are selling all the gas they got to the Chinese and the Indians, thereby increasing their revenue to fund the war. And it puts further pressure on Western European governments and their alliances because it hurts the people. Many more in Western Europe will suffer under energy poverty this winter. But they don't need to blow up their pipelines to do this. They can just turn off the tap.

C.) The former defense minister of Poland tweeted that the Americans did it. It's the current consensus in the European capitals. An American warship was only 60 km away at the times of the explosions. I'm not saying that I agree but that is what about everybody thinks right now. It is a nifty narrative to drive a wedge between the USA and its allies, though.

[Byron Angel]

Don't kid yourselves, gentlemen. Ukraine under the Zelensky/Kolomoisky regime has been an under-the-table stalking horse member of NATO since 2014.

Byron

And this is all organized by the "Deep State" or the Illuminati, or some such? The great secret cabal which controls everything?

No,Steve. Nothing remotely so romantically imaginative.
It’s just another step in the long-term scheme by the US/EU/NATO to collapse Russia, dismantle it, digest the remnants and take control of its highly valuable natural resources for the benefit of “western interests”.

It’s not really much of a “secret plot”. See John Mearsheimer, who has commented that this has been openly discussed within NATO over a number of years since the collapse of the USSR. The 2014,installation of the Zelensky regime (by coup d’etat) was the latest step until Putin upset their apple cart.

And to answer your next question before you ask it, look into the eight years of abuse and terror endured by the ethnic Russians of the Donbas at the hands of the Ukrainian army and other NSDAP-style “paramilitary elements”.

Byron

[paul.mercer]

Gentlemen,
It would seem that some of Putin's 'advisors' are trying to push him towards using 'tactical low yield' nuclear weapons (whatever they are). I know absolutely nothing about these things, but surely they would emit some sort of radiation which would still be dangerous if the Russian army was to retake the ground - as would chemical or biological weapons?
Do you think Putin would actually go that far, bearing in mind one of his greatest allies, China, already appear to be very concerned about the war?

[RF]

As for the so called 'referendum on the regions joining Russia' any referendum that produces results of over 90% (in one case 99%) has got to be a sham, if Putin really believes that Ukraine has always belonged to Russia, why have a referendum?

Lets have the referendum under proper international supervision, with the United Nations having a peacekeeping force in place, the Russians and Ukrainian military out, with a properly policed polling to stop voter intimidation and fraud.

Who could possibly object to that?

[paul.mercer]

Hi RF,
I fear that both the Russians and the Ukrainians would object, I cannot see Ukraine settling for anything else than a complete Russian withdrawal, including from Crimea - which they won't do.
I think the only thing that will stop this war is either the Russian people or the senior Russian military overthrowing Putin, which they may well do if he tries to deploy nuclear, chemical or biological weapons or if many more pictures of dead Russian soldiers get out and the people start asking why their friends and relatives are not coming home.
There must be some of the 'top brass' who have got their heads screwed on properly and see what a disaster it would be not only to Russia but possibly the world to do so.

[RF]

I fear that both the Russians and the Ukrainians would object,

Exactly, hence my rather sarcastic question about who would object.

But it would be interesting to see the result of a proper and fair referendum, between being in Russia, being in Ukraine, or being in neither as an independent state of their own.